Explaining conflict violence in terms of conflict actor dynamics.
| Autor: | Tkacova K; Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford, Radcliffe Observatory Quarter, Woodstock Road, Oxford, OX2 6GG, UK.; Global Security Programme, Pembroke College, St. Aldates, Oxford, OX1 1DW, UK., Idler A; Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford, Radcliffe Observatory Quarter, Woodstock Road, Oxford, OX2 6GG, UK. annette.idler@bsg.ox.ac.uk.; Global Security Programme, Pembroke College, St. Aldates, Oxford, OX1 1DW, UK. annette.idler@bsg.ox.ac.uk., Johnson N; Dynamic Online Networks Laboratory, George Washington University, Washington, DC, 20052, USA., López E; Department of Computational and Data Sciences, George Mason University, 4400 University Dr, Fairfax, VA, 22030, USA. |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Zdroj: | Scientific reports [Sci Rep] 2023 Dec 01; Vol. 13 (1), pp. 21187. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 Dec 01. |
| DOI: | 10.1038/s41598-023-48218-x |
| Abstrakt: | We study the severity of conflict-related violence in Colombia at an unprecedented granular scale in space and across time. Splitting the data into different geographical regions and different historically-relevant periods, we uncover variations in the patterns of conflict severity which we then explain in terms of local conflict actors' different collective behaviors and/or conditions using a simple mathematical model of conflict actors' grouping dynamics (coalescence and fragmentation). Specifically, variations in the approximate scaling values of the distributions of event lethalities can be explained by the changing strength ratio of the local conflict actors for distinct conflict eras and organizational regions. In this way, our findings open the door to a new granular spectroscopy of human conflicts in terms of local conflict actor strength ratios for any armed conflict. (© 2023. The Author(s).) |
| Databáze: | MEDLINE |
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