A Machine Learning Prediction Model for Immediate Graft Function After Deceased Donor Kidney Transplantation.

Autor:	Quinino RM; Renal Transplant Service, Hospital das Clinicas, University of São Paulo School of Medicine, São Paulo, Brazil., Agena F; Renal Transplant Service, Hospital das Clinicas, University of São Paulo School of Medicine, São Paulo, Brazil., Modelli de Andrade LG; Department of Internal Medicine, UNESP, State University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil., Furtado M; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil., Chiavegatto Filho ADP; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil., David-Neto E; Renal Transplant Service, Hospital das Clinicas, University of São Paulo School of Medicine, São Paulo, Brazil.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	Transplantation [Transplantation] 2023 Jun 01; Vol. 107 (6), pp. 1380-1389. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 May 23.
DOI:	10.1097/TP.0000000000004510
Abstrakt:	Background: After kidney transplantation (KTx), the graft can evolve from excellent immediate graft function (IGF) to total absence of function requiring dialysis. Recipients with IGF do not seem to benefit from using machine perfusion, an expensive procedure, in the long term when compared with cold storage. This study proposes to develop a prediction model for IGF in KTx deceased donor patients using machine learning algorithms. Methods: Unsensitized recipients who received their first KTx deceased donor between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2019, were classified according to the conduct of renal function after transplantation. Variables related to the donor, recipient, kidney preservation, and immunology were used. The patients were randomly divided into 2 groups: 70% were assigned to the training and 30% to the test group. Popular machine learning algorithms were used: eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Light Gradient Boosting Machine, Gradient Boosting classifier, Logistic Regression, CatBoost classifier, AdaBoost classifier, and Random Forest classifier. Comparative performance analysis on the test dataset was performed using the results of the AUC values, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and F1 score. Results: Of the 859 patients, 21.7% (n = 186) had IGF. The best predictive performance resulted from the eXtreme Gradient Boosting model (AUC, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.71-0.84; sensitivity, 0.64; specificity, 0.78). Five variables with the highest predictive value were identified. Conclusions: Our results indicated the possibility of creating a model for the prediction of IGF, enhancing the selection of patients who would benefit from an expensive treatment, as in the case of machine perfusion preservation. Competing Interests: The authors declare no funding or conflicts of interest. (Copyright © 2023 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.)
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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