Towards evolutionary predictions: Current promises and challenges.

Autor: Wortel MT; Swammerdam Institute for Life Sciences University of Amsterdam Amsterdam The Netherlands., Agashe D; National Centre for Biological Sciences Bangalore India., Bailey SF; Clarkson University Potsdam New York USA., Bank C; Institute of Ecology and Evolution University of Bern Bern Switzerland.; Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics Lausanne Switzerland.; Gulbenkian Science Institute Oeiras Portugal., Bisschop K; Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics University of Amsterdam Amsterdam The Netherlands.; Origins Center Groningen The Netherlands.; Laboratory of Aquatic Biology, KU Leuven Kulak Kortrijk Belgium., Blankers T; Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics University of Amsterdam Amsterdam The Netherlands.; Origins Center Groningen The Netherlands., Cairns J; University of Helsinki Helsinki Finland., Colizzi ES; Origins Center Groningen The Netherlands.; Mathematical Institute Leiden University Leiden The Netherlands., Cusseddu D; Instituto Gulbenkian de Ciência Oeiras Portugal., Desai MM; Harvard University Cambridge Massachusetts USA., van Dijk B; Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Biology Plön Germany., Egas M; Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics University of Amsterdam Amsterdam The Netherlands., Ellers J; Department of Ecological Science Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam Amsterdam The Netherlands., Groot AT; Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics University of Amsterdam Amsterdam The Netherlands., Heckel DG; Max Planck Institute for Chemical Ecology Jena Germany., Johnson ML; Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW) Wageningen The Netherlands., Kraaijeveld K; Leiden Centre for Applied Bioscience University of Applied Sciences Leiden Leiden The Netherlands., Krug J; Institute for Biological Physics University of Cologne Cologne Germany., Laan L; Department of Bionanoscience, Kavli Institute of Nanoscience TU Delft Delft The Netherlands., Lässig M; Institute for Biological Physics University of Cologne Cologne Germany., Lind PA; Department Molecular Biology Umeå University Umeå Sweden., Meijer J; Theoretical Biology and Bioinformatics, Department of Biology Utrecht University Utrecht The Netherlands., Noble LM; Institute de Biologie, École Normale Supérieure, CNRS, Inserm Paris France., Okasha S; University of Bristol Bristol UK., Rainey PB; Department of Microbial Population Biology Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Biology Plön Germany.; Laboratoire Biophysique et Évolution, CBI, ESPCI Paris, Université PSL, CNRS Paris France., Rozen DE; Institute of Biology, Leiden University Leiden The Netherlands., Shitut S; Origins Center Groningen The Netherlands.; Institute of Biology, Leiden University Leiden The Netherlands., Tans SJ; AMOLF Amsterdam The Netherlands., Tenaillon O; Université Paris Cité, IAME, UMR 1137, INSERM Paris France., Teotónio H; Institut de Biologie de l'Ecole Normale Supérieure Paris France., de Visser JAGM; Laboratory of Genetics Wageningen University & Research Wageningen The Netherlands., Visser ME; Department of Animal Ecology Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW) Wageningen The Netherlands., Vroomans RMA; Origins Center Groningen The Netherlands.; Informatics Institute University of Amsterdam Amsterdam The Netherlands., Werner GDA; Department of Zoology University of Oxford Oxford UK., Wertheim B; Groningen Institute for Evolutionary Life Sciences University of Groningen Groningen The Netherlands., Pennings PS; San Francisco State University San Francisco California USA.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Evolutionary applications [Evol Appl] 2022 Dec 09; Vol. 16 (1), pp. 3-21. Date of Electronic Publication: 2022 Dec 09 (Print Publication: 2023).
DOI: 10.1111/eva.13513
Abstrakt: Evolution has traditionally been a historical and descriptive science, and predicting future evolutionary processes has long been considered impossible. However, evolutionary predictions are increasingly being developed and used in medicine, agriculture, biotechnology and conservation biology. Evolutionary predictions may be used for different purposes, such as to prepare for the future, to try and change the course of evolution or to determine how well we understand evolutionary processes. Similarly, the exact aspect of the evolved population that we want to predict may also differ. For example, we could try to predict which genotype will dominate, the fitness of the population or the extinction probability of a population. In addition, there are many uses of evolutionary predictions that may not always be recognized as such. The main goal of this review is to increase awareness of methods and data in different research fields by showing the breadth of situations in which evolutionary predictions are made. We describe how diverse evolutionary predictions share a common structure described by the predictive scope, time scale and precision. Then, by using examples ranging from SARS-CoV2 and influenza to CRISPR-based gene drives and sustainable product formation in biotechnology, we discuss the methods for predicting evolution, the factors that affect predictability and how predictions can be used to prevent evolution in undesirable directions or to promote beneficial evolution (i.e. evolutionary control). We hope that this review will stimulate collaboration between fields by establishing a common language for evolutionary predictions.
Competing Interests: The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest.
(© 2022 The Authors. Evolutionary Applications published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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