Analysis of peste des petits ruminants virus spread and the risk of its introduction into the territory of the Russian Federation.

Autor: Agoltsov VA; Department of Veterinary Medicine and Biotechnology, Saratov State Agrarian University named after N.I. Vavilov, Saratov, Russia., Podshibyakin DV; Scientific Research Institute of Technologies of Organic and Inorganic Chemistry and Biotechnology LLC, Saratov, Russia., Padilo LP; Department of Veterinary Medicine and Biotechnology, Saratov State Agrarian University named after N.I. Vavilov, Saratov, Russia., Chernykh OY; Department of Microbiology and Animal Virology, Kuban State Agrarian University Named after I.T. Trubulin, Krasnodar, Russia., Popova OM; Department of Veterinary Medicine and Biotechnology, Saratov State Agrarian University named after N.I. Vavilov, Saratov, Russia., Stupina LV; Department of Veterinary Medicine and Biotechnology, Saratov State Agrarian University named after N.I. Vavilov, Saratov, Russia., Solotova NV; Department of Veterinary Medicine and Biotechnology, Saratov State Agrarian University named after N.I. Vavilov, Saratov, Russia.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Veterinary world [Vet World] 2022 Jul; Vol. 15 (7), pp. 1610-1616. Date of Electronic Publication: 2022 Jul 07.
DOI: 10.14202/vetworld.2022.1610-1616
Abstrakt: Aim: This study examines methods to effectively control peste des petits ruminants (PPR), an emerging, highly contagious, transboundary disease that has been designated as a highly dangerous disease by the World Organization for Animal Health. Mathematical modeling was used as a predictive and preventive tool to assess the risk of PPR virus spread in the model area and the probability of its introduction into the territory of the Russian Federation.
Materials and Methods: PPR risk assessment was performed by modeling the pathogen's ecological niche by performing linear regression analysis in the geographic information system ESRI ArcGIS Desktop and maximum entropy methods using MaxEnt software. The territories of Bangladesh, China, and Algeria were used as model countries because they have the highest number of confirmed PPR outbreaks, as reported by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations from 2009 to 2020. The prepared global model of the PPR pathogen's ecological niche was extrapolated onto the territory of the Far Eastern regions of the Russian Federation to assess the probability of virus introduction in that region.
Results: Global model analysis showed that two factors exerted the highest influence on the spread of the PPR pathogen on a global scale: The minimum temperature of the coldest month of the year and the density of roads per unit area, which reflect the overall economic activity within a region. The highest risk of PPR spread was observed in areas with a minimum annual temperature of 16°C and road density of 5000 m/k m 2 .
Conclusion: According to the model, areas with a dominant subtropical climate, where small livestock breeding is performed and where the average daily air temperature is >0°C throughout the year, are at the highest risk of PPR outbreaks. The risk of PPR spreading outside these areas is significantly reduced. Local extrapolation of the PPR ecological niche model demonstrates that the probability of epizootic development does not exceed 3-4% within the territories of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation adjacent to Mongolia and China.
Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no competing interests.
(Copyright: © Agoltsov, et al.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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