Model established based on blood markers predicts overall survival in patients after radical resection of types II and III adenocarcinoma of the esophagogastric junction.

Autor:	Wei ZJ; Department of General Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei 230022, Anhui Province, China., Qiao YT; Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Affiliated Hospital of HeBei University, Baoding 071000, Hebei Province, China., Zhou BC; Department of General Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei 230022, Anhui Province, China., Rankine AN; Department of Clinical Medicine, Anhui Medical University, Hefei 230032, Anhui Province, China., Zhang LX; Department of General Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei 230022, Anhui Province, China.; Department of Gastroenterology, Anhui Provincial Key Laboratory of Digestive Disease, The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei 230022, Anhui Province, China., Su YZ; Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei 230022, Anhui Province, China., Xu AM; Department of General Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei 230022, Anhui Province, China., Han WX; Department of General Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei 230022, Anhui Province, China., Luo PQ; Department of General Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei 230022, Anhui Province, China. xamlpqdoctor@163.com.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	World journal of gastrointestinal surgery [World J Gastrointest Surg] 2022 Aug 27; Vol. 14 (8), pp. 788-798.
DOI:	10.4240/wjgs.v14.i8.788
Abstrakt:	Background: In recent years, the incidence of types II and III adenocarcinoma of the esophagogastric junction (AEG) has shown an obvious upward trend worldwide. The prognostic prediction after radical resection of AEG has not been well established. Aim: To establish a prognostic model for AEG (types II and III) based on routine markers. Methods: A total of 355 patients who underwent curative AEG at The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University from January 2014 to June 2015 were retrospectively included in this study. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify the independent risk factors. A nomogram was constructed based on Cox proportional hazards models. The new score models was analyzed by C index and calibration curves. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to compare the predictive accuracy of the scoring system and tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage. Overall survival was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier curve amongst different risk AEG patients. Results: Multivariate analysis showed that TNM stage (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.286, P = 0.008), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (HR = 2.979, P = 0.001), and body mass index (HR = 0.626, P = 0.026) were independent prognostic factors. The new scoring system had a higher concordance index (0.697), and the calibration curves of the nomogram were reliable. The area under the ROC curve of the new score model (3-year: 0.725, 95% confidence interval [CI] : 0.676-0.777; 5-year: 0.758, 95%CI : 0.708-0.807) was larger than that of TNM staging (3-year: 0.630, 95%CI : 0.585-0.684; 5-year: 0.665 , 95%CI : 0.616-0.715). Conclusion: Based on the serum markers and other clinical indicators, we have developed a precise model to predict the prognosis of patients with AEG (types II and III). The new prognostic nomogram could effectively enhance the predictive value of the TNM staging system. This scoring system can be advantageous and helpful for surgeons and patients. Competing Interests: Conflict-of-interest statement: Patients were not required to give informed consent to the study because the analysis used anonymous clinical data that were obtained after each patient agreed to treatment by written consent. Conflict-of-interest statement: We have no financial relationships to disclose. (©The Author(s) 2022. Published by Baishideng Publishing Group Inc. All rights reserved.)
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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