A Metapopulation Model for Preventing the Reintroduction of Bovine Viral Diarrhea Virus to Naïve Herds: Scotland Case Study.

Autor:	Puspitarani GA; Roslin Institute, Royal (Dick) School of Veterinary Studies and the Roslin Institute, University of Edinburgh, Midlothian, United Kingdom.; Unit Veterinary Public Health and Epidemiology, University of Veterinary Medicine, Vienna, Austria., Kao RR; Roslin Institute, Royal (Dick) School of Veterinary Studies and the Roslin Institute, University of Edinburgh, Midlothian, United Kingdom., Colman E; Roslin Institute, Royal (Dick) School of Veterinary Studies and the Roslin Institute, University of Edinburgh, Midlothian, United Kingdom.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	Frontiers in veterinary science [Front Vet Sci] 2022 Jul 18; Vol. 9, pp. 846156. Date of Electronic Publication: 2022 Jul 18 (Print Publication: 2022).
DOI:	10.3389/fvets.2022.846156
Abstrakt:	Background: Bovine viral diarrhea (BVD) virus is one of the most problematic infectious pathogens for cattle. Since 2013, a mandatory BVD eradication program has successfully reduced the number of infected cattle living on Scottish farms; however, England remains at high prevalence and presents a risk to Scotland through animal movement. Methods: We analyze cattle movements in the UK from 2008 to 2017 and recorded incidence of BVD in Scotland from 2017 to 2020. To simulate BVD reintroduction into Scotland, we developed an epidemiological model that combines transmission between cattle and animal movements between farms. A total of four control strategies were implemented in the model: no intervention, import restriction, targeted vaccination, and combined strategy. Results: During the course of the eradication scheme, movements into Scotland became increasingly distributed in regions close to the England-Scotland border. The prevalence of BVD in this region decreased at a slower rate than the rest of Scotland during the eradication scheme. Our model showed that the change in the prevalence is expected, given that the change in the patterns of movement and if vaccination is targeted to the border areas that decrease in the prevalence will be seen throughout the whole of Scotland. Conclusion: Scottish farms are susceptible to BVD virus reintroduction through animal imports from non-BVD-free nations with farms in border areas being the most vulnerable. Protecting the border regions provides direct and indirect protection to the rest of Scottish farms by interrupting chains of transmission. Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest. (Copyright © 2022 Puspitarani, Kao and Colman.)
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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