Modelling COVID-19 infection with seasonality in Zimbabwe.

Autor: Ndlovu M; Gwanda State University, Zimbabwe., Moyo R; Gwanda State University, Zimbabwe., Mpofu M; Gwanda State University, Zimbabwe.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Physics and chemistry of the earth (2002) [Phys Chem Earth (2002)] 2022 Oct; Vol. 127, pp. 103167. Date of Electronic Publication: 2022 May 25.
DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2022.103167
Abstrakt: This paper presents evidence and the existence of seasonality in current existing COVID-19 datasets for three different countries namely Zimbabwe, South Africa, and Botswana. Therefore, we modified the SVIR model through factoring in the seasonality effect by incorporating moving averages and signal processing techniques to the disease transmission rate. The simulation results strongly established the existence of seasonality in COVID-19 dynamics with a correlation of 0.746 between models with seasonality effect at 0.001 significance level. Finally, the model was used to predict the magnitude and occurrence of the fourth wave.
Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
(© 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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