Accounting for demographic uncertainty increases predictions for species coexistence: A case study with annual plants.

Autor: Bowler CH; School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia., Weiss-Lehman C; Botany Department, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming, USA., Towers IR; School of Biological, Earth, and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia., Mayfield MM; School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia., Shoemaker LG; Botany Department, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming, USA.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Ecology letters [Ecol Lett] 2022 Jul; Vol. 25 (7), pp. 1618-1628. Date of Electronic Publication: 2022 May 28.
DOI: 10.1111/ele.14011
Abstrakt: Natural systems contain more complexity than is accounted for in models of modern coexistence theory. Coexistence modelling often disregards variation arising from stochasticity in biological processes, heterogeneity among individuals and plasticity in trait values. However, these unaccounted-for sources of uncertainty are likely to be ecologically important and have the potential to impact estimates of coexistence. We applied a Bayesian modelling framework to data from an annual plant community in Western Australia to propagate uncertainty in coexistence outcomes using the invasion criterion and ratio of niche to fitness differences. We found accounting for this uncertainty altered predictions of coexistence versus competitive exclusion for 3 out of 14 species pairs and yielded a probability of priority effects for an additional species pair. The propagation of uncertainty arising from sources of biological complexity improves our ability to predict coexistence more accurately in natural systems.
(© 2022 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
Externí odkaz: