Anthropogenic influence on the changing risk of heat waves over India.

Autor: Kishore P; Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA, 92697, USA., Basha G; Department of Space, National Atmospheric Research Laboratory, Gadanki, P.B. No123, Tirupati, 517502, India. mdbasha@narl.gov.in., Venkat Ratnam M; Department of Space, National Atmospheric Research Laboratory, Gadanki, P.B. No123, Tirupati, 517502, India., AghaKouchak A; Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA, 92697, USA.; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, CA, 92697, USA., Sun Q; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, CA, 92697, USA., Velicogna I; Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA, 92697, USA.; Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, 91109, USA., Ouarda TBJM; INRS-ETE, National Institute of Scientific Research, Quebec City, Canada.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Scientific reports [Sci Rep] 2022 Feb 28; Vol. 12 (1), pp. 3337. Date of Electronic Publication: 2022 Feb 28.
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-07373-3
Abstrakt: The overarching goal of this paper is to shed light on the human influence on the changing patterns of heat waves in India using the Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId). The HWMId obtained from the observational data sets shows a large increase in the heat waves during the past decades. Investigating the effects of natural (e.g., solar variations and volcanic forcings) and anthropogenic (e.g., greenhouse gas emissions, anthropogenic, land use, and land cover) forcings revealed that the anthropogenic factors have cause a two-fold increase in the occurrence probability of severe heat waves in central and mid-southern India during twentieth century. The spatial distribution of maximum HWMId values under natural and all forcings (including anthropogenic) indicates that in most places human activities have increases the frequency, duration and intensity of extreme heat waves. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5, the risk of heat waves is projected to increase tenfold during the twenty-first century. More than ~ 70% of the land areas in India is projected to be influenced by heat waves with magnitudes greater than 9. Furthermore, we find a significant relationship between heat waves and deficits in precipitation. Results show that concurrent heat waves and droughts are projected to increase in most places in India during the twenty-first century.
(© 2022. The Author(s).)
Databáze: MEDLINE
Externí odkaz:
Nepřihlášeným uživatelům se plný text nezobrazuje