Climate change threatens native potential agroforestry plant species in Brazil.

Autor: Lima VP; Programa de Pós-Graduação em Recursos Genéticos Vegetais, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Florianópolis, SC, 88034-000, Brazil. vallldeir@gmail.com.; Departamento de Fitotecnia, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Florianópolis, SC, 88034-000, Brazil. vallldeir@gmail.com., de Lima RAF; Naturalis Biodiversity Center, PO Box 9517, 2300 RA, Leiden, The Netherlands.; Departamento de Ecologia, Instituto de Biociências, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, 05508-090, Brazil., Joner F; Departamento de Fitotecnia, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Florianópolis, SC, 88034-000, Brazil., Siddique I; Programa de Pós-Graduação em Recursos Genéticos Vegetais, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Florianópolis, SC, 88034-000, Brazil.; Departamento de Fitotecnia, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Florianópolis, SC, 88034-000, Brazil., Raes N; Naturalis Biodiversity Center, PO Box 9517, 2300 RA, Leiden, The Netherlands.; NLBIF - Netherlands Biodiversity Information Facility, Leiden, The Netherlands., Ter Steege H; Naturalis Biodiversity Center, PO Box 9517, 2300 RA, Leiden, The Netherlands.; Systems Ecology, Free University, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Scientific reports [Sci Rep] 2022 Feb 10; Vol. 12 (1), pp. 2267. Date of Electronic Publication: 2022 Feb 10.
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-06234-3
Abstrakt: Climate change is one of the main drivers of species extinction in the twentyfirst-century. Here, we  (1) quantify potential changes in species' bioclimatic area of habitat (BAH) of 135 native potential agroforestry species from the Brazilian flora, using two different climate change scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) and dispersal scenarios, where species have no ability to disperse and reach new areas (non-dispersal) and where species can migrate within the estimated BAH (full dispersal) for 2041-2060 and 2061-2080. We then (2) assess the preliminary conservation status of each species based on IUCN criteria. Current and future potential habitats for species were predicted using MaxEnt, a machine-learning algorithm used to estimate species' probability distribution. Future climate is predicted to trigger a mean decline in BAH between 38.5-56.3% under the non-dispersal scenario and between 22.3-41.9% under the full dispersal scenario for 135 native potential agroforestry species. Additionally, we found that only 4.3% of the studied species could be threatened under the IUCN Red List criteria B1 and B2. However, when considering the predicted quantitative habitat loss due to climate change (A3c criterion) the percentages increased between 68.8-84.4% under the non-dispersal scenario and between 40.7-64.4% under the full dispersal scenario. To lessen such threats, we argue that encouraging the use of these species in rural and peri-urban agroecosystems are promising, complementary strategies for their long-term conservation.
(© 2022. The Author(s).)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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