Changing impacts of Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone tsunamis in California under future sea-level rise.

Autor: Dura T; Department of Geosciences, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, 24061, USA. tinadura@vt.edu.; Center for Coastal Studies, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, 24061, USA. tinadura@vt.edu., Garner AJ; Department of Environmental Science, Rowan University, Glassboro, NJ, 08028, USA., Weiss R; Department of Geosciences, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, 24061, USA.; Center for Coastal Studies, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, 24061, USA., Kopp RE; Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ, 08854, USA.; Institute of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, 08901, USA., Engelhart SE; Department of Geography, Durham University, Lower Mountjoy, South Road, Durham, DH1 3LE, UK., Witter RC; U.S. Geological Survey, Alaska Science Center, Anchorage, AK, 99508, USA., Briggs RW; U.S. Geological Survey, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Golden, CO, 80401, USA., Mueller CS; U.S. Geological Survey, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Golden, CO, 80401, USA., Nelson AR; U.S. Geological Survey, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Golden, CO, 80401, USA., Horton BP; Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, 639798, Singapore.; Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, 639798, Singapore.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Nature communications [Nat Commun] 2021 Dec 08; Vol. 12 (1), pp. 7119. Date of Electronic Publication: 2021 Dec 08.
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-27445-8
Abstrakt: The amplification of coastal hazards such as distant-source tsunamis under future relative sea-level rise (RSLR) is poorly constrained. In southern California, the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone has been identified as an earthquake source region of particular concern for a worst-case scenario distant-source tsunami. Here, we explore how RSLR over the next century will influence future maximum nearshore tsunami heights (MNTH) at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Earthquake and tsunami modeling combined with local probabilistic RSLR projections show the increased potential for more frequent, relatively low magnitude earthquakes to produce distant-source tsunamis that exceed historically observed MNTH. By 2100, under RSLR projections for a high-emissions representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5), the earthquake magnitude required to produce >1 m MNTH falls from ~M w 9.1 (required today) to M w 8.0, a magnitude that is ~6.7 times more frequent along the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone.
(© 2021. The Author(s).)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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