Estimates and Determinants of SARS-Cov-2 Seroprevalence and Infection Fatality Ratio Using Latent Class Analysis: The Population-Based Tirschenreuth Study in the Hardest-Hit German County in Spring 2020.

Autor: Wagner R; Institute of Medical Microbiology and Hygiene, Molecular Microbiology (Virology), University of Regensburg, Franz-Josef-Strauß-Allee 11, 93053 Regensburg, Germany.; Institute of Clinical Microbiology and Hygiene, University Hospital Regensburg, Franz-Josef-Strauß-Allee 11, 93053 Regensburg, Germany., Peterhoff D; Institute of Medical Microbiology and Hygiene, Molecular Microbiology (Virology), University of Regensburg, Franz-Josef-Strauß-Allee 11, 93053 Regensburg, Germany., Beileke S; Institute of Clinical and Molecular Virology, University Hospital Erlangen, Friedrich-Alexander Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Schlossgarten 4, 91054 Erlangen, Germany., Günther F; Statistical Consulting Unit StaBLab, Department of Statistics, LMU Munich, Geschwister-Scholl-Platz 1, 80539 Munich, Germany.; Department of Genetic Epidemiology, University of Regensburg, Franz-Josef-Strauß-Allee 11, 93053 Regensburg, Germany., Berr M; Institute of Medical Microbiology and Hygiene, Molecular Microbiology (Virology), University of Regensburg, Franz-Josef-Strauß-Allee 11, 93053 Regensburg, Germany., Einhauser S; Institute of Medical Microbiology and Hygiene, Molecular Microbiology (Virology), University of Regensburg, Franz-Josef-Strauß-Allee 11, 93053 Regensburg, Germany., Schütz A; Institute of Medical Microbiology and Hygiene, Molecular Microbiology (Virology), University of Regensburg, Franz-Josef-Strauß-Allee 11, 93053 Regensburg, Germany., Niller HH; Institute of Medical Microbiology and Hygiene, Molecular Microbiology (Virology), University of Regensburg, Franz-Josef-Strauß-Allee 11, 93053 Regensburg, Germany., Steininger P; Institute of Clinical and Molecular Virology, University Hospital Erlangen, Friedrich-Alexander Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Schlossgarten 4, 91054 Erlangen, Germany., Knöll A; Institute of Clinical and Molecular Virology, University Hospital Erlangen, Friedrich-Alexander Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Schlossgarten 4, 91054 Erlangen, Germany., Tenbusch M; Institute of Clinical and Molecular Virology, University Hospital Erlangen, Friedrich-Alexander Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Schlossgarten 4, 91054 Erlangen, Germany., Maier C; Institute of Clinical and Molecular Virology, University Hospital Erlangen, Friedrich-Alexander Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Schlossgarten 4, 91054 Erlangen, Germany., Korn K; Institute of Clinical and Molecular Virology, University Hospital Erlangen, Friedrich-Alexander Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Schlossgarten 4, 91054 Erlangen, Germany., Stark KJ; Department of Genetic Epidemiology, University of Regensburg, Franz-Josef-Strauß-Allee 11, 93053 Regensburg, Germany., Gessner A; Institute of Medical Microbiology and Hygiene, Molecular Microbiology (Virology), University of Regensburg, Franz-Josef-Strauß-Allee 11, 93053 Regensburg, Germany.; Institute of Clinical Microbiology and Hygiene, University Hospital Regensburg, Franz-Josef-Strauß-Allee 11, 93053 Regensburg, Germany., Burkhardt R; Institute of Clinical Chemistry and Laboratory Medicine, University Hospital Regensburg, Franz-Josef-Strauß-Allee 11, 93053 Regensburg, Germany., Kabesch M; University Children's Hospital Regensburg (KUNO) at the Hospital St. Hedwig of the Order of St. John, University of Regensburg, Steinmetzstraße 1-3, 93049 Regensburg, Germany., Schedl H; Bayerisches Rotes Kreuz, Kreisverband Tirschenreuth, Egerstraße 21, 95643 Tirschenreuth, Germany., Küchenhoff H; Statistical Consulting Unit StaBLab, Department of Statistics, LMU Munich, Geschwister-Scholl-Platz 1, 80539 Munich, Germany., Pfahlberg AB; Department of Medical Informatics, Biometry and Epidemiology, Friedrich-Alexander Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg (FAU), Waldstr. 6, 91054 Erlangen, Germany., Heid IM; Department of Genetic Epidemiology, University of Regensburg, Franz-Josef-Strauß-Allee 11, 93053 Regensburg, Germany., Gefeller O; Department of Medical Informatics, Biometry and Epidemiology, Friedrich-Alexander Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg (FAU), Waldstr. 6, 91054 Erlangen, Germany., Überla K; Institute of Clinical and Molecular Virology, University Hospital Erlangen, Friedrich-Alexander Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Schlossgarten 4, 91054 Erlangen, Germany.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Viruses [Viruses] 2021 Jun 10; Vol. 13 (6). Date of Electronic Publication: 2021 Jun 10.
DOI: 10.3390/v13061118
Abstrakt: SARS-CoV-2 infection fatality ratios (IFR) remain controversially discussed with implications for political measures. The German county of Tirschenreuth suffered a severe SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in spring 2020, with particularly high case fatality ratio (CFR). To estimate seroprevalence, underreported infections, and IFR for the Tirschenreuth population aged ≥14 years in June/July 2020, we conducted a population-based study including home visits for the elderly, and analyzed 4203 participants for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies via three antibody tests. Latent class analysis yielded 8.6% standardized county-wide seroprevalence, a factor of underreported infections of 5.0, and 2.5% overall IFR. Seroprevalence was two-fold higher among medical workers and one third among current smokers with similar proportions of registered infections. While seroprevalence did not show an age-trend, the factor of underreported infections was 12.2 in the young versus 1.7 for ≥85-year-old. Age-specific IFRs were <0.5% below 60 years of age, 1.0% for age 60-69, and 13.2% for age 70+. Senior care homes accounted for 45% of COVID-19-related deaths, reflected by an IFR of 7.5% among individuals aged 70+ and an overall IFR of 1.4% when excluding senior care home residents from our computation. Our data underscore senior care home infections as key determinant of IFR additionally to age, insufficient targeted testing in the young, and the need for further investigations on behavioral or molecular causes of the fewer infections among current smokers.
Databáze: MEDLINE
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