Epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 cases and estimates of the reproductive numbers 1 month into the epidemic, Italy, 28 January to 31 March 2020.

Autor: Riccardo F; Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy.; These authors contributed equally., Ajelli M; These authors contributed equally.; Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy.; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Indiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, United States.; Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, United States., Andrianou XD; Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy.; Cyprus University of Technology, Limassol, Cyprus., Bella A; Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy., Del Manso M; Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy.; European Programme for Intervention Epidemiology Training (EPIET), European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), Stockholm, Sweden., Fabiani M; Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy., Bellino S; Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy., Boros S; Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy., Urdiales AM; Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy.; European Programme for Intervention Epidemiology Training (EPIET), European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), Stockholm, Sweden., Marziano V; Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy., Rota MC; Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy., Filia A; Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy., D'Ancona F; Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy., Siddu A; Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy., Punzo O; Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy., Trentini F; Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy., Guzzetta G; Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy., Poletti P; Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy., Stefanelli P; Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy., Castrucci MR; Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy., Ciervo A; Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy., Di Benedetto C; Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy., Tallon M; Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy., Piccioli A; Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy., Brusaferro S; Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy., Rezza G; Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy., Merler S; Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy., Pezzotti P; Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin [Euro Surveill] 2020 Dec; Vol. 25 (49).
DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.49.2000790
Abstrakt: BackgroundOn 20 February 2020, a locally acquired coronavirus disease (COVID-19) case was detected in Lombardy, Italy. This was the first signal of ongoing transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in the country. The number of cases in Italy increased rapidly and the country became the first in Europe to experience a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak.AimOur aim was to describe the epidemiology and transmission dynamics of the first COVID-19 cases in Italy amid ongoing control measures.MethodsWe analysed all RT-PCR-confirmed COVID-19 cases reported to the national integrated surveillance system until 31 March 2020. We provide a descriptive epidemiological summary and estimate the basic and net reproductive numbers by region.ResultsOf the 98,716 cases of COVID-19 analysed, 9,512 were healthcare workers. Of the 10,943 reported COVID-19-associated deaths (crude case fatality ratio: 11.1%) 49.5% occurred in cases older than 80 years. Male sex and age were independent risk factors for COVID-19 death. Estimates of R 0 varied between 2.50 (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.18-2.83) in Tuscany and 3.00 (95% CI: 2.68-3.33) in Lazio. The net reproduction number R t in northern regions started decreasing immediately after the first detection.ConclusionThe COVID-19 outbreak in Italy showed a clustering onset similar to the one in Wuhan, China. R 0 at 2.96 in Lombardy combined with delayed detection explains the high case load and rapid geographical spread. Overall, R t in Italian regions showed early signs of decrease, with large diversity in incidence, supporting the importance of combined non-pharmacological control measures.
Databáze: MEDLINE
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