Modeling and forecasting sex differences in mortality: a sex-ratio approach.

Autor: Bergeron-Boucher MP; 1Center on Population Dynamics, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark., Canudas-Romo V; 2School of Demography, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia., Pascariu M; 1Center on Population Dynamics, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark., Lindahl-Jacobsen R; 1Center on Population Dynamics, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark.; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Southern Denmark, Institute of Public Health, Odense, Denmark.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Genus [Genus] 2018; Vol. 74 (1), pp. 20. Date of Electronic Publication: 2018 Dec 03.
DOI: 10.1186/s41118-018-0044-8
Abstrakt: Female and male life expectancies have converged in most industrialized societies in recent decades. To achieve coherent forecasts between females and males, this convergence needs to be considered when forecasting sex-specific mortality. We introduce a model forecasting a matrix of the age-specific death rates of sex ratio, decomposed into two age profiles and time indices-before and after age 45-using principal component analysis. Our model allows visualization of both age structure and general level over time of sex differences in mortality for these two age groups. Based on a prior forecast for females, we successfully forecast male mortality convergence with female mortality. The usefulness of the developed model is illustrated by its comparison with other coherent and independent models in an out-of-sample forecast evaluation for 18 countries. The results show that the new proposal outperformed the other models for most countries.
Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no competing interests.Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Databáze: MEDLINE
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