Estimating the Basic Reproductive Number for African Swine Fever Using the Ukrainian Historical Epidemic of 1977.

Autor: Korennoy FI; Federal Center for Animal Health (FGBI ARRIAH), Vladimir, Russia., Gulenkin VM; Federal Center for Animal Health (FGBI ARRIAH), Vladimir, Russia., Gogin AE; National Research Institute for Veterinary Virology and Microbiology of Russia (SSINRRIVV&M), Pokrov, Russia., Vergne T; Royal Veterinary College, University of London, London, UK., Karaulov AK; Federal Center for Animal Health (FGBI ARRIAH), Vladimir, Russia.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Transboundary and emerging diseases [Transbound Emerg Dis] 2017 Dec; Vol. 64 (6), pp. 1858-1866. Date of Electronic Publication: 2016 Sep 25.
DOI: 10.1111/tbed.12583
Abstrakt: In 1977, Ukraine experienced a local epidemic of African swine fever (ASF) in the Odessa region. A total of 20 settlements were affected during the course of the epidemic, including both large farms and backyard households. Thanks to timely interventions, the virus circulation was successfully eradicated within 6 months, leading to no additional outbreaks. Detailed report of the outbreak's investigation has been publically available from 2014. The report contains some quantitative data that allow studying the ASF-spread dynamics in the course of the epidemic. In our study, we used this historical epidemic to estimate the basic reproductive number of the ASF virus both within and between farms. The basic reproductive number (R 0 ) represents the average number of secondary infections caused by one infectious unit during its infectious period in a susceptible population. Calculations were made under assumption of an exponential initial growth by fitting the approximating curve to the initial segments of the epidemic curves. The R 0 both within farm and between farms was estimated at 7.46 (95% confidence interval: 5.68-9.21) and 1.65 (1.42-1.88), respectively. Corresponding daily transmission rates were estimated at 1.07 (0.81-1.32) and 0.09 (0.07-0.10). These estimations based on historical data are consistent with those using data generated by the recent epidemic currently affecting eastern Europe. Such results contribute to the published knowledge on the ASF transmission dynamics under natural conditions and could be used to model and predict the spread of ASF in affected and non-affected regions and to evaluate the effectiveness of different control measures.
(© 2016 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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