Phenological sensitivity to climate across taxa and trophic levels.

Autor: Thackeray SJ; Centre for Ecology &Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Avenue, Bailrigg, Lancaster, Lancashire LA1 4AP, UK., Henrys PA; Centre for Ecology &Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Avenue, Bailrigg, Lancaster, Lancashire LA1 4AP, UK., Hemming D; Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB, UK., Bell JR; Rothamsted Research, West Common, Harpenden, Hertfordshire AL5 2JQ, UK., Botham MS; Centre for Ecology &Hydrology, Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxfordshire OX10 8BB, UK., Burthe S; Centre for Ecology &Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian EH26 0QB, UK., Helaouet P; The Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, The Laboratory, Citadel Hill, Plymouth, Devon PL1 2PB, UK., Johns DG; The Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, The Laboratory, Citadel Hill, Plymouth, Devon PL1 2PB, UK., Jones ID; Centre for Ecology &Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Avenue, Bailrigg, Lancaster, Lancashire LA1 4AP, UK., Leech DI; British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford, Norfolk IP24 2PU, UK., Mackay EB; Centre for Ecology &Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Avenue, Bailrigg, Lancaster, Lancashire LA1 4AP, UK., Massimino D; British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford, Norfolk IP24 2PU, UK., Atkinson S; The Woodland Trust, Kempton Way, Grantham, Lincolnshire NG31 6LL, UK., Bacon PJ; Futtie Park, Banchory, Aberdeen AB31 4RX, UK., Brereton TM; Butterfly Conservation, Manor Yard, East Lulworth, Wareham, Dorset BH20 5QP, UK., Carvalho L; Centre for Ecology &Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian EH26 0QB, UK., Clutton-Brock TH; Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK., Duck C; Sea Mammal Research Unit, Scottish Oceans Institute, East Sands, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, Fife KY16 8LB, UK., Edwards M; The Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, The Laboratory, Citadel Hill, Plymouth, Devon PL1 2PB, UK., Elliott JM; The Freshwater Biological Association, The Ferry Landing, Far Sawrey, Ambleside, Cumbria LA22 0LP, UK., Hall SJ; University of Lincoln, Riseholme Hall, Riseholme Park, Lincoln, Lincolnshire LN2 2LG, UK., Harrington R; Rothamsted Research, West Common, Harpenden, Hertfordshire AL5 2JQ, UK., Pearce-Higgins JW; British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford, Norfolk IP24 2PU, UK., Høye TT; Aarhus Institute of Advanced Studies, Department of Bioscience and Arctic Research Centre, Aarhus University, Høegh-Guldbergs Gade 6B, DK-8000 Aarhus C, Denmark., Kruuk LE; Institute of Evolutionary Biology, School of Biological Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3FL, UK.; Research School of Biology, The Australian National University, ACT 2612 Australia., Pemberton JM; Institute of Evolutionary Biology, School of Biological Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3FL, UK., Sparks TH; Faculty of Engineering and Computing, Coventry University, Priory Street, Coventry CV1 5FB, UK.; Institute of Zoology, Poznan´ University of Life Sciences, Wojska Polskiego 71C, 60-625 Poznan´, Poland., Thompson PM; University of Aberdeen, Lighthouse Field Station, George Street, Cromarty, Ross-shire IV11 8YJ, UK., White I; People's Trust for Endangered Species, 15 Cloisters House, 8 Battersea Park Road, London SW8 4BG, UK., Winfield IJ; Centre for Ecology &Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Avenue, Bailrigg, Lancaster, Lancashire LA1 4AP, UK., Wanless S; Centre for Ecology &Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian EH26 0QB, UK.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Nature [Nature] 2016 Jul 14; Vol. 535 (7611), pp. 241-5. Date of Electronic Publication: 2016 Jun 29.
DOI: 10.1038/nature18608
Abstrakt: Differences in phenological responses to climate change among species can desynchronise ecological interactions and thereby threaten ecosystem function. To assess these threats, we must quantify the relative impact of climate change on species at different trophic levels. Here, we apply a Climate Sensitivity Profile approach to 10,003 terrestrial and aquatic phenological data sets, spatially matched to temperature and precipitation data, to quantify variation in climate sensitivity. The direction, magnitude and timing of climate sensitivity varied markedly among organisms within taxonomic and trophic groups. Despite this variability, we detected systematic variation in the direction and magnitude of phenological climate sensitivity. Secondary consumers showed consistently lower climate sensitivity than other groups. We used mid-century climate change projections to estimate that the timing of phenological events could change more for primary consumers than for species in other trophic levels (6.2 versus 2.5-2.9 days earlier on average), with substantial taxonomic variation (1.1-14.8 days earlier on average).
Databáze: MEDLINE
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