| Autor: |
Wong MC; Institute of Digestive Disease, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong, HKSAR, China.; School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong, HKSAR, China., Ching JY; Institute of Digestive Disease, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong, HKSAR, China., Chan VC; Institute of Digestive Disease, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong, HKSAR, China., Tang RS; Institute of Digestive Disease, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong, HKSAR, China., Luk AK; Institute of Digestive Disease, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong, HKSAR, China., Lam TY; Institute of Digestive Disease, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong, HKSAR, China., Wong SS; Institute of Digestive Disease, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong, HKSAR, China., Ng SC; Institute of Digestive Disease, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong, HKSAR, China., Ng SS; Institute of Digestive Disease, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong, HKSAR, China., Wu JC; Institute of Digestive Disease, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong, HKSAR, China., Chan FK; Institute of Digestive Disease, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong, HKSAR, China., Sung JJ; Institute of Digestive Disease, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong, HKSAR, China. |
| Abstrakt: |
This study developed a clinical scoring system to predict the risks of PN among screening participants for colorectal cancer. We recruited 5,789 Chinese asymptomatic screening participants who received colonoscopy in Hong Kong (2008-2014). From random sampling of 2,000 participants, the independent risk factors were evaluated for PN using binary regression analysis. The odds ratios for significant risk factors were used to develop a scoring system, with scores stratified into 'average risk' (AR):0-2 and 'high risk' (HR):3-5. The other 3,789 subjects formed an independent validation cohort. Each participant received a score calculated based on their risk factors. The performance of the scoring system was evaluated. The proportion of PN in the derivation and validation cohorts was 12.6% and 12.9%, respectively. Based on age, gender, family history, body mass index and self-reported ischaemic heart disease, 85.0% and 15.0% in the validation cohort were classified as AR and HR, respectively. Their prevalence of PN was 12.0% and 18.1%, respectively. Participants in the HR group had 1.51-fold (95% CI = 1.24-1.84, p < 0.001) higher risk of PN than the AR group. The overall c-statistics of the prediction model was 0.71(0.02). The scoring system is useful in predicting the risk of PN to prioritize patients for colonoscopy. |
