| Autor: |
Mniszewski SM; Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545., Manore CA; Tulane University, New Orleans, LA 70118., Bryan C; University of California, Davis, CA 95616., Del Valle SY; Research Triangle Institute, Durham, NC 27709., Roberts D |
| Jazyk: |
angličtina |
| Zdroj: |
Summer Computer Simulation Conference : (SCSC 2014) : 2014 Summer Simulation Multi-Conference : Monterey, California, USA, 6-10 July 2014. Summer Computer Simulation Conference (2014 : Monterey, Calif.) [Summer Comput Simul Conf (2014)] 2014 Jul; Vol. 2014. |
| Abstrakt: |
Agent-based models (ABM) are used to simulate the spread of infectious disease through a population. Detailed human movement, demography, realistic business location networks, and in-host disease progression are available in existing ABMs, such as the Epidemic Simulation System (EpiSimS). These capabilities make possible the exploration of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical mitigation strategies used to inform the public health community. There is a similar need for the spread of mosquito borne pathogens due to the re-emergence of diseases such as chikungunya and dengue fever. A network-patch model for mosquito dynamics has been coupled with EpiSimS. Mosquitoes are represented as a "patch" or "cloud" associated with a location. Each patch has an ordinary differential equation (ODE) mosquito dynamics model and mosquito related parameters relevant to the location characteristics. Activities at each location can have different levels of potential exposure to mosquitoes based on whether they are inside, outside, or somewhere in-between. As a proof of concept, the hybrid network-patch model is used to simulate the spread of chikungunya through Washington, DC. Results are shown for a base case, followed by varying the probability of transmission, mosquito count, and activity exposure. We use visualization to understand the pattern of disease spread. |
| Databáze: |
MEDLINE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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