Zobrazeno 1 - 10
of 107
pro vyhledávání: '"ensemble spread"'
Publikováno v:
Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 51, Iss 14, Pp n/a-n/a (2024)
Abstract Atmospheric prediction at 2–6 weeks lead time (so‐called subseasonal‐to‐seasonal timescales) entails large forecast uncertainty. Here we investigate the flow‐dependence of this uncertainty during Boreal winter. We categorize the la
Externí odkaz:
https://doaj.org/article/aca39538c90242c898c81014dd2b9f4c
Autor:
David L. A. Flack
Publikováno v:
Atmospheric Science Letters, Vol 25, Iss 2, Pp n/a-n/a (2024)
Abstract Ensemble forecasting systems provide useful insight into the uncertainty in the prediction of the atmosphere. However, most analysis considers ensembles in latitude, longitude, and time. Here, the vertical aspects of the spread‐skill relat
Externí odkaz:
https://doaj.org/article/67466fd3302143f9a3c45d482731f9c5
Autor:
Kuldeep Sharma, Joshua Chun Kwang Lee, Aurore Porson, Krishnamoorthy Chandramouli, Nigel Roberts, Douglas Boyd, Huqiang Zhang, Dale Melvyn Barker
Publikováno v:
Frontiers in Environmental Science, Vol 11 (2023)
A common issue faced by the downscaled regional ensemble prediction systems is the under-dispersiveness of the ensemble forecasts, often attributed to the lack of spread under the initial conditions from the global ensemble. In this study, a novel me
Externí odkaz:
https://doaj.org/article/54389d903991418392755d762452d655
Autor:
Yongming Wang, Xuguang Wang
Publikováno v:
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol 15, Iss 1, Pp n/a-n/a (2023)
Abstract Ensemble‐based convective‐scale radar data assimilation commonly suffers from an underdispersive background ensemble. This study introduces a multivariate additive‐inflation method to address such deficiency. The multivariate additive
Externí odkaz:
https://doaj.org/article/0c085a7900144de2ba3d68823b8f5bc3
Akademický článek
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Autor:
Oriana S. Chegwidden, Bart Nijssen, David E. Rupp, Jeffrey R. Arnold, Martyn P. Clark, Joseph J. Hamman, Shih‐Chieh Kao, Yixin Mao, Naoki Mizukami, Philip W. Mote, Ming Pan, Erik Pytlak, Mu Xiao
Publikováno v:
Earth's Future, Vol 7, Iss 6, Pp 623-637 (2019)
Abstract Methodological choices can have strong effects on projections of climate change impacts on hydrology. In this study, we investigate the ways in which four different steps in the modeling chain influence the spread in projected changes of dif
Externí odkaz:
https://doaj.org/article/4e826215220840e9ac94a47b7f2a966f
Autor:
Ravi P. Shukla, Chul‐Su Shin
Publikováno v:
Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 47, Iss 4, Pp n/a-n/a (2020)
Abstract This study examines the different characteristics of ensemble spread (ESP) between drought and flood years of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) during June to September mean using the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2). We have analyzed a s
Externí odkaz:
https://doaj.org/article/2e91c3d4c102410bad19907f703b8124
Akademický článek
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Publikováno v:
Atmosphere, Vol 12, Iss 6, p 662 (2021)
We conducted single-model initial-perturbed ensemble simulations to quantify uncertainty in aerosol dispersion modeling, focusing on a point-source radioactive aerosol emitted from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) in March 2011. The
Externí odkaz:
https://doaj.org/article/afb1aa34215844d2a00d4c5d2e6e35da
Publikováno v:
Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, Vol 9, Iss 5, p 475 (2021)
A wave forecast numerical simulation was performed for Typhoon Lingling around the Korean Peninsula and in the East Asia region using sea winds from 24 members produced by the Ensemble Prediction System for Global (EPSG) of Korea Meteorological Admin
Externí odkaz:
https://doaj.org/article/33d8ce2444c94639bf8d3cc74c4076ac