National and subnational short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during early 2021

Autor: Johannes Bracher, Daniel Wolffram, Jannik Deuschel, Konstantin Görgen, Jakob L. Ketterer, Alexander Ullrich, Sam Abbott, Maria V. Barbarossa, Dimitris Bertsimas, Sangeeta Bhatia, Marcin Bodych, Nikos I. Bosse, Jan Pablo Burgard, Lauren Castro, Geoffrey Fairchild, Jochen Fiedler, Jan Fuhrmann, Sebastian Funk, Anna Gambin, Krzysztof Gogolewski, Stefan Heyder, Thomas Hotz, Yuri Kheifetz, Holger Kirsten, Tyll Krueger, Ekaterina Krymova, Neele Leithäuser, Michael L. Li, Jan H. Meinke, Błażej Miasojedow, Isaac J. Michaud, Jan Mohring, Pierre Nouvellet, Jedrzej M. Nowosielski, Tomasz Ozanski, Maciej Radwan, Franciszek Rakowski, Markus Scholz, Saksham Soni, Ajitesh Srivastava, Tilmann Gneiting, Melanie Schienle

Publikováno v: Communications Medicine, Vol 2, Iss 1, Pp 1-17 (2022)

Bracher et al. compare 15 forecasting models of COVID-19 cases and deaths in Germany and Poland between January and mid-April 2021. Many, though not all, models outperform a simple baseline model up to four weeks ahead, with ensemble methods showing

Externí odkaz: https://doaj.org/article/538dfac0ac9e4eb3b14e8b4242363283

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Autor: Katharine Sherratt, Hugo Gruson, Rok Grah, Helen Johnson, Rene Niehus, Bastian Prasse, Frank Sandmann, Jannik Deuschel, Daniel Wolffram, Sam Abbott, Alexander Ullrich, Graham Gibson, Evan L Ray, Nicholas G Reich, Daniel Sheldon, Yijin Wang, Nutcha Wattanachit, Lijing Wang, Jan Trnka, Guillaume Obozinski, Tao Sun, Dorina Thanou, Loic Pottier, Ekaterina Krymova, Jan H Meinke, Maria Vittoria Barbarossa, Neele Leithauser, Jan Mohring, Johanna Schneider, Jaroslaw Wlazlo, Jan Fuhrmann, Berit Lange, Isti Rodiah, Prasith Baccam, Heidi Gurung, Steven Stage, Bradley Suchoski, Jozef Budzinski, Robert Walraven, Inmaculada Villanueva, Vit Tucek, Martin Smid, Milan Zajicek, Cesar Perez Alvarez, Borja Reina, Nikos I Bosse, Sophie R Meakin, Lauren Castro, Geoffrey Fairchild, Isaac Michaud, Dave Osthus, Pierfrancesco Alaimo Di Loro, Antonello Maruotti, Veronika Eclerova, Andrea Kraus, David Kraus, Lenka Pribylova, Bertsimas Dimitris, Michael Lingzhi Li, Soni Saksham, Jonas Dehning, Sebastian Mohr, Viola Priesemann, Grzegorz Redlarski, Benjamin Bejar, Giovanni Ardenghi, Nicola Parolini, Giovanni Ziarelli, Wolfgang Bock, Stefan Heyder, Thomas Hotz, David E Singh, Miguel Guzman-Merino, Jose L Aznarte, David Morina, Sergio Alonso, Enric Alvarez, Daniel Lopez, Clara Prats, Jan Pablo Burgard, Arne Rodloff, Tom Zimmermann, Alexander Kuhlmann, Janez Zibert, Fulvia Pennoni, Fabio Divino, Marti Catala, Gianfranco Lovison, Paolo Giudici, Barbara Tarantino, Francesco Bartolucci, Giovanna Jona Lasinio, Marco Mingione, Alessio Farcomeni, Ajitesh Srivastava, Pablo Montero-Manso, Aniruddha Adiga, Benjamin Hurt, Bryan Lewis, Madhav Marathe, Przemyslaw Porebski, Srinivasan Venkatramanan, Rafal P Bartczuk, Filip Dreger, Anna Gambin, Krzysztof Gogolewski, Magdalena Gruziel-Slomka, Bartosz Krupa, Antoni Moszyński, Karol Niedzielewski, Jedrzej Nowosielski, Maciej Radwan, Franciszek Rakowski, Marcin Semeniuk, Ewa Szczurek, Jakub Zielinski, Jan Kisielewski, Barbara Pabjan, Kirsten Holger, Yuri Kheifetz, Markus Scholz, Biecek Przemyslaw, Marcin Bodych, Maciej Filinski, Radoslaw Idzikowski, Tyll Krueger, Tomasz Ozanski, Johannes Bracher, Sebastian Funk

Publikováno v: eLife, Vol 12 (2023)

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predi

Externí odkaz: https://doaj.org/article/26d25f44b203488cba00565db28416bb

On the Parametrization of Epidemiologic Models—Lessons from Modelling COVID-19 Epidemic

Autor: Yuri Kheifetz, Holger Kirsten, Markus Scholz

Publikováno v: Viruses, Vol 14, Iss 7, p 1468 (2022)

Numerous prediction models of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic were proposed in the past. Unknown parameters of these models are often estimated based on observational data. However, lag in case-reporting, changing testing policy or incompleteness of data lead to

Externí odkaz: https://doaj.org/article/87a2cacf19e849d0bb2d4d0ace2566ff

Individual hematotoxicity prediction of further chemotherapy cycles by dynamic mathematical models in patients with gastrointestinal tumors

Autor: Vivien Topf, Yuri Kheifetz, Severin Daum, Alexej Ballhausen, Andreas Schwarzer, Kien Vu Trung, Gertraud Stocker, Achim Aigner, Florian Lordick, Markus Scholz, Maren Knödler

Purpose Hematotoxicity is a common side-effect of cytotoxic gastrointestinal (GI) cancer therapies. An unsolved problem is to predict the individual risk therefore to decide on treatment adaptions. We applied an established biomathematical prediction

Externí odkaz: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::9e6c6e33d7f419f702ac647291077146
https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-2404179/v1

Short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during the second wave – a preregistered study

Autor: Jannik Deuschel, Holger Kirsten, Geoffrey Fairchild, Difan Zou, Tilmann Gneiting, Tyll Krueger, Stefan Heyder, Marcin Bodych, Karol Niedzielewski, Michael Lingzhi Li, Quanquan Gu, Sangeeta N. Bhatia, Krzysztof Gogolewski, Jakob Ketterer, Konstantin Goergen, Franciszek Rakowski, Thomas Hotz, Dimitris Bertsimas, Daniel Wolffram, Ajitesh Srivastava, Jan Pablo Burgard, Lauren Castro, Jakub Zieliński, Markus Scholz, Isaac Michaud, Jan Fuhrmann, Melanie Schienle, Nikos I Bosse, Sebastian Funk, Sam Abbott, Johannes Bracher, Ekaterina Krymova, Tomasz Ozanski, Maria Vittoria Barbarossa, Saksham Soni, Yuri Kheifetz, Jan H. Meinke, Alexander Ullrich

We report insights from ten weeks of collaborative COVID-19 forecasting for Germany and Poland (12 October – 19 December 2020). The study period covers the onset of the second wave in both countries, with tightening non-pharmaceutical interventions

Externí odkaz: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::9dc14326a36c42b9f3dbaca209f09518
https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.12.24.20248826