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Deducing historical correlations for realistic stochastic forecasting of intermittent energy sources
Autor:
Srivats Shukla, Fook-Luen Heng, Wander S. Wadman, Mark A. Lavin, Younghun Kim, Utopus Insights
Publikováno v:
2017 IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting.
Intermittent generation, such as wind and solar, are popularizing stochastic simulation of power grids. Stochastic forecasts of these uncertainties are typically characterized by their marginal distributions. However, dependencies between forecasts a
Publikováno v:
2016 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC).
Publikováno v:
ACM Transactions on Modeling and Computer Simulation, 26(4)
Given the continued integration of intermittent renewable generators in electrical power grids, connection overloads are of increasing concern for grid operators. The risk of an overload due to injection variability can be described mathematically as