Zobrazeno 1 - 10
of 20
pro vyhledávání: '"W P Aspinall"'
Publikováno v:
PLoS ONE, Vol 11, Iss 3, p e0149817 (2016)
For many societally important science-based decisions, data are inadequate, unreliable or non-existent, and expert advice is sought. In such cases, procedures for eliciting structured expert judgments (SEJ) are increasingly used. This raises question
Externí odkaz:
https://doaj.org/article/e156208ef6ec4ee38ee02660762ee8c0
Publikováno v:
Earth's Future, Vol 10, Iss 10, Pp n/a-n/a (2022)
Abstract The ice sheets covering Antarctica and Greenland present the greatest uncertainty in, and largest potential contribution to, future sea level rise. The uncertainty arises from a paucity of suitable observations covering the full range of ice
Externí odkaz:
https://doaj.org/article/b73e63587de549a0896b1e473b310168
Publikováno v:
Royal Society Open Science, Vol 8, Iss 9 (2021)
Drawing on risk methods from volcano crises, we developed a rapid COVID-19 infection model for the partial return of pupils to primary schools in England in June and July 2020, and a full return in September 2020. The model handles uncertainties in k
Externí odkaz:
https://doaj.org/article/6a8c4f6410dc454ca56e97b18b7523b5
Autor:
R. S. J. Sparks, W. P. Aspinall, E. Brooks-Pollock, R. M. Cooke, L. Danon, J. Barclay, J. H. Scarrow, J. Cox
Publikováno v:
Royal Society Open Science, Vol 8, Iss 1 (2021)
Personal contacts drive COVID-19 infections. After being closed (23 March 2020) UK primary schools partially re-opened on 1 June 2020 with social distancing and new risk mitigation strategies. We conducted a structured expert elicitation of teachers
Externí odkaz:
https://doaj.org/article/78d2b38d809f472fbdd1fc994bc49082
Publikováno v:
Geophysical Journal International. 230:1699-1710
SUMMARYWe describe an algorithm for producing an approximate 95 per cent confidence interval (CI) for the bulk volume of tephra fall deposits, based on point-referenced tephra thickness measurements, and expert judgement. Applied to the Aso-4 eruptio
Externí odkaz:
https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::f5ebff524bef4df975c48c8d9b1edb65
https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggac131
https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggac131
Publikováno v:
Royal Society Open Science. 9
The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic has impacted children's education, with schools required to implement infection control measures that have led to periods of absence and classroom closures. We developed an agent-based epidemiological model of SARS-CoV-2 trans
Externí odkaz:
https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::61b0cbe3bee5d005dde3f128fa4b6a54
https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.211985
https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.211985
Autor:
K. J. Beven, W. P. Aspinall, P. D. Bates, E. Borgomeo, K. Goda, J. W. Hall, T. Page, J. C. Phillips, M. Simpson, P. J. Smith, T. Wagener, M. Watson
Publikováno v:
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol 18, Pp 2769-2783 (2018)
Part 1 of this paper has discussed the uncertainties arising from gaps in knowledge or limited understanding of the processes involved in different natural hazard areas. Such deficits may include uncertainties about frequencies, process representatio
Externí odkaz:
https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::3881e0b45a854035c3ab5ed02444ae40
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2769-2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2769-2018
Autor:
K. J. Beven, S. Almeida, W. P. Aspinall, P. D. Bates, S. Blazkova, E. Borgomeo, J. Freer, K. Goda, J. W. Hall, J. C. Phillips, M. Simpson, P. J. Smith, D. B. Stephenson, T. Wagener, M. Watson, K. L. Wilkins
Publikováno v:
Beven, K J, Almeida, S, Aspinall, W P, Bates, P D, Blazkova, S, Borgomeo, E, Freer, J, Goda, K, Hall, J W, Phillips, J C, Simpson, M, Smith, P J, Stephenson, D B, Wagener, T, Watson, M & Wilkins, K L 2018, ' Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment-Part 1 : A review of different natural hazard areas ' Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, vol. 18, no. 10, pp. 2741-2768 . https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2741-2018
Beven, K J, Almeida, S, Aspinall, W P, Bates, P D, Blazkova, S, Borgomeo, E, Freer, J, Goda, K, Hall, J W, Phillips, J C, Simpson, M, Smith, P J, Stephenson, D B, Wagener, T, Watson, M & Wilkins, K L 2018, ' Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment-Part 1 : A review of different natural hazard areas ', Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, vol. 18, no. 10, pp. 2741-2768 . https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2741-2018
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol 18, Pp 2741-2768 (2018)
Beven, K J, Almeida, S, Aspinall, W P, Bates, P D, Blazkova, S, Borgomeo, E, Freer, J, Goda, K, Hall, J W, Phillips, J C, Simpson, M, Smith, P J, Stephenson, D B, Wagener, T, Watson, M & Wilkins, K L 2018, ' Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment-Part 1 : A review of different natural hazard areas ', Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, vol. 18, no. 10, pp. 2741-2768 . https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2741-2018
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol 18, Pp 2741-2768 (2018)
This paper discusses how epistemic uncertainties are currently considered in the most widely occurring natural hazard areas, including floods, landslides and debris flows, dam safety, droughts, earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic ash clouds and pyroclast
Externí odkaz:
https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::4f83bd244f5ca304c2f6a14f0a6f50be
https://research-information.bristol.ac.uk/en/publications/epistemic-uncertainties-and-natural-hazard-risk-assessment--part-1(ed554360-7c41-400e-ac4f-a43f6e157de7).html
https://research-information.bristol.ac.uk/en/publications/epistemic-uncertainties-and-natural-hazard-risk-assessment--part-1(ed554360-7c41-400e-ac4f-a43f6e157de7).html
Autor:
W. P. Aspinall
Publikováno v:
Statistics in Volcanology ISBN: 9781862396234
Aspinall, WP 2006, Structured elicitation of expert judgment for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment in volcanic eruptions . in HM Mader, SG Coles, CB Connor & LJ Connor (eds), Statistics in Volcanology (Special Publications of IAVCEI, No. 1) . Geological Society of London, pp. 15-30 .
Aspinall, WP 2006, Structured elicitation of expert judgment for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment in volcanic eruptions . in HM Mader, SG Coles, CB Connor & LJ Connor (eds), Statistics in Volcanology (Special Publications of IAVCEI, No. 1) . Geological Society of London, pp. 15-30 .
When a potentially dangerous volcano becomes restless, civil authorities invariably turn to scientific specialists to help them anticipate what the volcano will do next, and to provide them with guidance as to the likely threats. Although it is usual
Externí odkaz:
https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::131a49912ecd95efd17db00907a51757
https://doi.org/10.1144/iavcei001.2
https://doi.org/10.1144/iavcei001.2
Autor:
K. J. Beven, S. Almeida, W. P. Aspinall, P. D. Bates, S. Blazkova, E. Borgomeo, K. Goda, J. C. Phillips, M. Simpson, P. J. Smith, D. B. Stephenson, T. Wagener, M. Watson, K. L. Wilkins
This paper discusses how epistemic uncertainties are considered in a number of different natural hazard areas including floods, landslides and debris flows, dam safety, droughts, earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic ash clouds and pyroclastic flows, and w
Externí odkaz:
https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::d65f312eaf9234d0428e683bf0fa45fd
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2015-295
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2015-295