Zobrazeno 1 - 10
of 212
pro vyhledávání: '"Spiegler, Ran"'
Autor:
Eliaz, Kfir, Spiegler, Ran
We present a model of news media that shape consumer beliefs by providing information (signals about an exogenous state) and narratives (models of what determines outcomes). To amplify consumers' engagement, media maximize consumers' anticipatory uti
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/2403.09155
Autor:
Ellis, Andrew, Spiegler, Ran
A representative researcher pursuing a question has repeated opportunities for empirical research. To process findings, she must impose an identifying assumption, which ensures that repeated observation would provide a definitive answer to her questi
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/2402.18713
Autor:
Spiegler, Ran
When inferring the causal effect of one variable on another from correlational data, a common practice by professional researchers as well as lay decision makers is to control for some set of exogenous confounding variables. Choosing an inappropriate
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/2305.18916
We present an equilibrium model of politics in which political platforms compete over public opinion. A platform consists of a policy, a coalition of social groups with diverse intrinsic attitudes to policies, and a narrative. We conceptualize narrat
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/2206.12621
Autor:
Spiegler, Ran
Reverse causality is a common causal misperception that distorts the evaluation of private actions and public policies. This paper explores the implications of this error when a decision maker acts on it and therefore affects the very statistical reg
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/2110.12218
Autor:
Spiegler, Ran
I study a static textbook model of monetary policy and relax the conventional assumption that the private sector has rational expectations. Instead, the private sector forms inflation forecasts according to a misspecified subjective model that disagr
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/2105.08988
Autor:
Eliaz, Kfir, Spiegler, Ran
We present a model of optimal training of a rational, sluggish agent. A trainer commits to a discrete-time, finite-state Markov process that governs the evolution of training intensity. Subsequently, the agent monitors the state and adjusts his capac
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/2105.08786
To what extent can agents with misspecified subjective models predict false correlations? We study an "analyst" who utilizes models that take the form of a recursive system of linear regression equations. The analyst fits each equation to minimize th
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/1911.01251
Autor:
Eliaz, Kfir, Spiegler, Ran
We formalize the argument that political disagreements can be traced to a "clash of narratives". Drawing on the "Bayesian Networks" literature, we model a narrative as a causal model that maps actions into consequences, weaving a selection of other r
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/1811.04232