Zobrazeno 1 - 10
of 225
pro vyhledávání: '"Smith, Jim Q."'
Autor:
Drury, Kieran, Smith, Jim Q.
Serious crime modelling typically needs to be undertaken securely behind a firewall where police knowledge and capabilities can remain undisclosed. Data informing an ongoing incident is often sparse, with a large proportion of relevant data only comi
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/2409.07389
Bayesian networks are one of the most widely used classes of probabilistic models for risk management and decision support because of their interpretability and flexibility in including heterogeneous pieces of information. In any applied modelling, i
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/2407.04667
Graphical models and likelihood ratios can be used by forensic scientists to compare support given by evidence to propositions put forward by competing parties during court proceedings. Such models can also be used to evaluate support for activity-le
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/2404.02778
Autor:
Dawid, A. Philip, Dotto, Francesco, Graves, Maxine, Kadane, Jay B., Mortera, Julia, Robertson, Gail, Smith, Jim Q., Wilson, Amy L.
We compare three graphical methods for displaying evidence in a legal case: Wigmore Charts, Bayesian Networks and Chain Event Graphs. We find that these methods are aimed at three distinct audiences, respectively lawyers, forensic scientists and the
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/2403.16628
Probabilistic graphical models are widely used to model complex systems under uncertainty. Traditionally, Gaussian directed graphical models are applied for analysis of large networks with continuous variables as they can provide conditional and marg
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/2312.03643
Resource adequacy studies typically use standard metrics such as Loss of Load Expectation and Expected Energy Unserved to quantify the risk of supply shortfalls. This paper critiques present approaches to adequacy assessment and capacity procurement
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/2309.06119
Motivated by demand prediction for the custodial prison population in England and Wales, this paper describes an approach to the study of service systems using infinite server queues, where the system has non-empty initial state and the elapsed time
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/2302.11395
We study the stability of posterior predictive inferences to the specification of the likelihood model and perturbations of the data generating process. In modern big data analyses, useful broad structural judgements may be elicited from the decision
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/2301.13701
Autor:
Strong, Peter, Smith, Jim Q.
Several structure-learning algorithms for staged trees, asymmetric extensions of Bayesian networks, have been proposed. However, these either do not scale efficiently as the number of variables considered increases, a priori restrict the set of model
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/2211.07228
Autor:
Yu, Xuewen, Smith, Jim Q.
The analysis of system reliability has often benefited from graphical tools such as fault trees and Bayesian networks. In this article, instead of conventional graphical tools, we apply a probabilistic graphical model called the chain event graph (CE
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/2209.06704