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pro vyhledávání: '"Ray, Evan L."'
Over the last ten years, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has organized an annual influenza forecasting challenge with the motivation that accurate probabilistic forecasts could improve situational awareness and yield more effe
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/2407.19054
Recent years have seen increasing efforts to forecast infectious disease burdens, with a primary goal being to help public health workers make informed policy decisions. However, there has only been limited discussion of how predominant forecast eval
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/2312.16201
The characteristics of influenza seasons varies substantially from year to year, posing challenges for public health preparation and response. Influenza forecasting is used to inform seasonal outbreak response, which can in turn potentially reduce th
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/2202.11834
Autor:
Ray, Evan L., Brooks, Logan C., Bien, Jacob, Biggerstaff, Matthew, Bosse, Nikos I., Bracher, Johannes, Cramer, Estee Y., Funk, Sebastian, Gerding, Aaron, Johansson, Michael A., Rumack, Aaron, Wang, Yijin, Zorn, Martha, Tibshirani, Ryan J., Reich, Nicholas G.
The U.S. COVID-19 Forecast Hub aggregates forecasts of the short-term burden of COVID-19 in the United States from many contributing teams. We study methods for building an ensemble that combines forecasts from these teams. These experiments have inf
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/2201.12387
Publikováno v:
In Epidemics December 2023 45
Forecasting has emerged as an important component of informed, data-driven decision-making in a wide array of fields. We introduce a new data model for probabilistic predictions that encompasses a wide range of forecasting settings. This framework cl
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/2006.03922
For practical reasons, many forecasts of case, hospitalization and death counts in the context of the current COVID-19 pandemic are issued in the form of central predictive intervals at various levels. This is also the case for the forecasts collecte
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/2005.12881
Autor:
Ray, Evan L., Brooks, Logan C., Bien, Jacob, Biggerstaff, Matthew, Bosse, Nikos I., Bracher, Johannes, Cramer, Estee Y., Funk, Sebastian, Gerding, Aaron, Johansson, Michael A., Rumack, Aaron, Wang, Yijin, Zorn, Martha, Tibshirani, Ryan J., Reich, Nicholas G.
Publikováno v:
In International Journal of Forecasting July-September 2023 39(3):1366-1383
Akademický článek
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Autor:
Ray, Evan L., Reich, Nicholas G.
Accurate and reliable predictions of infectious disease dynamics can be valuable to public health organizations that plan interventions to decrease or prevent disease transmission. A great variety of models have been developed for this task, using di
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/1703.10936