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Akademický článek

Representing model error in ensemble data assimilation

Autor: C. Cardinali, N. Žagar, G. Radnoti, R. Buizza

Publikováno v: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, Vol 21, Iss 5, Pp 971-985 (2014)

The paper investigates a method to represent model error in the ensemble data assimilation (EDA) system. The ECMWF operational EDA simulates the effect of both observations and model uncertainties. Observation errors are represented by perturbations

Externí odkaz: https://doaj.org/article/8cf14fdb5a35442aa2a329856852059c

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Akademický článek

Flood forecasting using medium-range probabilistic weather prediction

Autor: B. T. Gouweleeuw, J. Thielen, G. Franchello, A. P. J. De De Roo, R. Buizza

Publikováno v: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol 9, Iss 4, Pp 365-380 (2005)

Following the developments in short- and medium-range weather forecasting over the last decade, operational flood forecasting also appears to show a shift from a so-called single solution or 'best guess' deterministic approach towards a probabilistic

Externí odkaz: https://doaj.org/article/399797120a064bd0bc2eab671aea81bc

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Akademický článek

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Akademický článek

The Soverato flood in Southern Italy: performance of global and limited-area ensemble forecasts

Autor: A. Montani, C. Marsigli, F. Nerozzi, T. Paccagnella, S. Tibaldi, R. Buizza

Publikováno v: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, Vol 10, Iss 3, Pp 261-274 (2003)

The predictability of the flood event affecting Soverato (Southern Italy) in September 2000 is investigated by considering three different configurations of ECMWF ensemble: the operational Ensemble Prediction System (EPS), the targeted EPS and a high

Externí odkaz: https://doaj.org/article/3d05c83e3ccc4cc3ad8cbc9d355dfc34

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Akademický článek

Performance of the ARPA-SMR limited-area ensemble prediction system: two flood cases

Autor: A. Montani, C. Marsigli, F. Nerozzi, T. Paccagnella, R. Buizza

Publikováno v: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, Vol 8, Iss 6, Pp 387-399 (2001)

The performance of the ARPA-SMR Limited-area Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS), generated by nesting a limited-area model on selected members of the ECMWF targeted ensemble, is evaluated for two flood events that occurred during September 1992. The p

Externí odkaz: https://doaj.org/article/1692c423214f4130b9cd78e6602d4a62

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