When do we need multiple infectious disease models? Agreement between projection rank and magnitude in a multi-model setting.

Autor: Wade-Malone K; Department of Biology and Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA., Howerton E; Department of Biology and Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA. Electronic address: ehowerton@psu.edu., Probert WJM; Big Data Institute, University of Oxford, UK., Runge MC; US Geological Survey, Eastern Ecological Science Center at the Patuxent Research Refuge, Laurel, MD, USA., Viboud C; Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA., Shea K; Department of Biology and Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.

Publikováno v: Epidemics [Epidemics] 2024 Jun; Vol. 47, pp. 100767. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Apr 17.

Scenario Design for Infectious Disease Projections: Integrating Concepts from Decision Analysis and Experimental Design.

Autor: Runge MC; U.S. Geological Survey, Eastern Ecological Science Center at the Patuxent Research Refuge, Laurel, Maryland, USA., Shea K; The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA., Howerton E; The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA., Yan K; The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA., Hochheiser H; University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA., Rosenstrom E; North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, USA., Probert WJM; University of Oxford, Oxford, UK., Borchering R; The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA., Marathe MV; University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, USA., Lewis B; University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, USA., Venkatramanan S; University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, USA., Truelove S; Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA., Lessler J; The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA., Viboud C; Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, USA.

Publikováno v: MedRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences [medRxiv] 2023 Oct 12. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 Oct 12.

Multiple models for outbreak decision support in the face of uncertainty.

Autor: Shea K; Department of Biology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802.; Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802., Borchering RK; Department of Biology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802.; Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802., Probert WJM; Nuffield Department of Medicine, Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford OX3 7LF, United Kingdom., Howerton E; Department of Biology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802.; Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802., Bogich TL; Department of Biology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802.; Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802., Li SL; State Key Laboratory of Grassland Agro-ecosystems, Center for Grassland Microbiome, and College of Pastoral, Agriculture Science and Technology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 73000, People's Republic of China., van Panhuis WG; Department of Epidemiology, Graduate School of Public Health, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA 15260., Viboud C; Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892., Aguás R; Nuffield Department of Medicine, Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford OX3 7LF, United Kingdom., Belov AA; Office of Biostatistics and Pharmacovigilance, Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, Food and Drug Administration, Silver Spring, MD 20993., Bhargava SH; Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611., Cavany SM; Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556., Chang JC; Epidemiology and Biostatistics Section, Rehabilitation Medicine, Clinical Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892.; Mederrata Research Inc, Columbus, OH 43212., Chen C; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195., Chen J; Department of Computer Science, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095., Chen S; Department of Public Health Sciences, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC 28223.; School of Data Science, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC 28223., Chen Y; Mechatronics, Embedded Systems and Automation Laboratory, School of Engineering, University of California, Merced, CA 95343., Childs LM; Department of Mathematics, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA 24061., Chow CC; Mathematical Biology Section, Laboratory of Biological Modeling, National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892., Crooker I; Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545., Del Valle SY; Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545., España G; Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556., Fairchild G; Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545., Gerkin RC; School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287., Germann TC; Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545., Gu Q; Department of Computer Science, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095., Guan X; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195., Guo L; School of Mathematics, Jilin University, Changchun, Jilin 130012, People's Republic of China., Hart GR; Institute for Disease Modeling, Global Health Division, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA 98109., Hladish TJ; Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611.; Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32610., Hupert N; Department of Population Health Sciences, Division of Epidemiology, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY 10065., Janies D; Computational Intelligence to Predict Health and Environmental Risks, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC 28223., Kerr CC; Institute for Disease Modeling, Global Health Division, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA 98109., Klein DJ; Institute for Disease Modeling, Global Health Division, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA 98109., Klein EY; Department of Emergency Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21209.; One Health Trust, Washington, DC 20015., Lin G; Department of Emergency Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21209.; One Health Trust, Washington, DC 20015., Manore C; Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545., Meyers LA; Department of Integrative Biology, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712., Mittler JE; Department of Microbiology, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195., Mu K; Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Network Science Institute, Northeastern University, Boston, MA 02115., Núñez RC; Institute for Disease Modeling, Global Health Division, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA 98109., Oidtman RJ; Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556., Pasco R; Operations Research and Industrial Engineering, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712., Pastore Y Piontti A; Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Network Science Institute, Northeastern University, Boston, MA 02115., Paul R; Department of Public Health Sciences, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC 28223., Pearson CAB; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, United Kingdom.; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, United Kingdom.; South African Department of Science and Innovation - National Research Foundation Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, 7600 South Africa., Perdomo DR; Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611., Perkins TA; Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556., Pierce K; Texas Advanced Computing Center, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712., Pillai AN; Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611., Rael RC; Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545., Rosenfeld K; Institute for Disease Modeling, Global Health Division, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA 98109., Ross CW; Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545., Spencer JA; Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545., Stoltzfus AB; National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg, MD 20899., Toh KB; School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611., Vattikuti S; Mathematical Biology Section, Laboratory of Biological Modeling, National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892., Vespignani A; Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Network Science Institute, Northeastern University, Boston, MA 02115., Wang L; Department of Computer Science, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095., White LJ; Nuffield Department of Medicine, Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford OX3 7LF, United Kingdom., Xu P; Department of Computer Science, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095., Yang Y; One Health Trust, Washington, DC 20015., Yogurtcu ON; Office of Biostatistics and Pharmacovigilance, Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, Food and Drug Administration, Silver Spring, MD 20993., Zhang W; Department of Computer Science, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095., Zhao Y; The 28th Research Institute of China Technology Group Corporation, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, People's Republic of China., Zou D; Department of Computer Science, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095., Ferrari MJ; Department of Biology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802.; Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802., Pannell D; School of Agriculture and Environment, University of Western Australia, Perth, WA 6009, Australia., Tildesley MJ; Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, United Kingdom., Seifarth J; Department of Biology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802.; Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802., Johnson E; Department of Biology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802.; Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802., Biggerstaff M; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention COVID-19 Response, Atlanta, GA 30329., Johansson MA; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention COVID-19 Response, Atlanta, GA 30329., Slayton RB; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention COVID-19 Response, Atlanta, GA 30329., Levander JD; Department of Biomedical Informatics, School of Medicine, University of Pittsburgh, PA 15260., Stazer J; Department of Biomedical Informatics, School of Medicine, University of Pittsburgh, PA 15260., Kerr J; Department of Biomedical Informatics, School of Medicine, University of Pittsburgh, PA 15260., Runge MC; U.S. Geological Survey, Eastern Ecological Science Center, Laurel, MD 20708.

Publikováno v: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America [Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A] 2023 May 02; Vol. 120 (18), pp. e2207537120. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 Apr 25.

Projected outcomes of universal testing and treatment in a generalised HIV epidemic in Zambia and South Africa (the HPTN 071 [PopART] trial): a modelling study.

Autor: Probert WJM; Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. Electronic address: william.probert@bdi.ox.ac.uk., Sauter R; Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK., Pickles M; Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK., Cori A; Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK., Bell-Mandla NF; Desmond Tutu TB Centre, Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Stellenbosch University, Cape Town, South Africa., Bwalya J; Zambart, University of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia., Abeler-Dörner L; Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK., Bock P; Desmond Tutu TB Centre, Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Stellenbosch University, Cape Town, South Africa., Donnell DJ; Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA., Floyd S; Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK., Macleod D; Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK., Piwowar-Manning E; School of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA., Skalland T; Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA., Shanaube K; Zambart, University of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia., Wilson E; Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA., Yang B; Desmond Tutu TB Centre, Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Stellenbosch University, Cape Town, South Africa., Ayles H; Zambart, University of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia; Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK., Fidler S; Department of Infectious Disease, Imperial College London, London, UK; NIHR Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, London, UK., Hayes RJ; Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK., Fraser C; Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

Publikováno v: The lancet. HIV [Lancet HIV] 2022 Nov; Vol. 9 (11), pp. e771-e780.

Estimating SARS-CoV-2 variant fitness and the impact of interventions in England using statistical and geo-spatial agent-based models.

Autor: Hinch R; Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK., Panovska-Griffiths J; Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.; The Queen's College, and, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK., Probert WJM; Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK., Ferretti L; Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK., Wymant C; Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK., Di Lauro F; Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK., Baya N; Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK., Ghafari M; Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK., Abeler-Dörner L; Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK., Fraser C; Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

Publikováno v: Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences [Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci] 2022 Oct 03; Vol. 380 (2233), pp. 20210304. Date of Electronic Publication: 2022 Aug 15.