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pro vyhledávání: '"Penzer, Jeremy"'
We consider two ways that one might convert a prediction of sea surface temperature (SST) into a prediction of landfalling hurricane numbers. First, one might regress historical numbers of landfalling hurricanes onto historical SSTs, and use the fitt
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0701176
Autor:
Jewson, Stephen, Laepple, Thomas, O'Shay, Adam, Penzer, Jeremy, Bellone, Enrica, Nzerem, Kechi
One possible method for predicting landfalling hurricane numbers is to first predict the number of hurricanes in the basin and then convert that prediction to a prediction of landfalling hurricane numbers using an estimated proportion. Should this wo
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0701166
We are developing schemes that predict future hurricane numbers by first predicting future sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and then apply the observed statistical relationship between SST and hurricane numbers. As part of this overall goal, in this
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0701162
Autor:
Jewson, Stephen, Penzer, Jeremy
In previous work we have analysed the Atlantic basin hurricane number time-series to identify decadal time-scale change points. We now repeat the analysis but for US landfalling hurricanes. The results are very different.
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0611086
Autor:
Jewson, Stephen, Penzer, Jeremy
We perform an objective change-point analysis on 106 years of historical hurricane number data. The algorithm we use looks at all possible combinations of change-points and compares them in terms of the variances of the differences between real and m
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0611071
In earlier work we considered methods for predicting future levels of hurricane activity based on the assumption that historical mean activity was at one constant level from 1900 to 1994, and has been at another constant level since then. We now make
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0611070
In previous work, we have shown how to combine long and short historical baselines to make predictions of future hurricane numbers. We now ask: how should such combinations change if we are interested in predicting the future number of intense hurric
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0606192
Annual levels of US landfalling hurricane activity averaged over the last 11 years (1995-2005) are higher than those averaged over the previous 95 years (1900-1994). How, then, should we best predict hurricane activity rates for next year? Based on t
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0512113
Autor:
de Jong, Piet, Penzer, Jeremy
Publikováno v:
Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1998 Jun 01. 93(442), 796-806.
Externí odkaz:
https://www.jstor.org/stable/2670129
Autor:
Penzer, Jeremy, Shea, Brian
Publikováno v:
Biometrika, 1997 Dec 01. 84(4), 919-928.
Externí odkaz:
https://www.jstor.org/stable/2337662