The influence of the stratosphere on the North Atlantic storm track predictability in subseasonal-to-seasonal reforecasts

Autor: Hilla Gerstman, Dominik Büeler, C. Ole Wulff, Michael Sprenger, Daniela Domeisen

Extreme stratospheric polar vortex events, such as sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW) or extremely strong polar vortex (SPV) states, can have a prolonged downward impact, influencing surface weather for several weeks to months. These events often le

Externí odkaz: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::ce0402fa243f7646696093d2a4d836ba
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-553

Influence of trends on subseasonal temperature prediction skill

Autor: Daniela Domeisen, Ole Wulff, Frederic Vitart

Publikováno v: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, vol. 148, no. 744, pp. 1280-1299
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 148 (744)
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions have a wide range of applications. Improving forecasts on this time-scale has therefore become a major effort. To evaluate their performance, these forecasts are routinely compared to a reference that forecas

Externí odkaz: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::6e0d75cc9c201733e2b09b2613d240ae
https://serval.unil.ch/resource/serval:BIB_6CE2FB0A4E6C.P001/REF.pdf

Diverse Surface Signatures of Stratospheric Polar Vortex Anomalies

Autor: Daniela Domeisen, Amy Butler, Ole Wulff, Simon Lee, Erik W. Kolstad

Publikováno v: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 127 (20)
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, vol. 127, no. 20
Journal of Geophysical Research (JGR): Atmospheres

The Arctic stratospheric polar vortex is an important driver of winter weather and climate variability and predictability in North America and Eurasia, with a downward influence that on average projects onto the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Whil

Externí odkaz: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::2375606adc1873c3e916349e021bbd44

Trends inflate estimates of subseasonal skill for surface temperatures

Autor: Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Frédéric Vitart, Ole Wulff

Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions have numerous applications and improving forecast skill on this time scale has become a major effort. Since forecast uncertainty is high on S2S lead times, ensemble prediction systems are essential in order t

Externí odkaz: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::5d8d15b3980e0f5f4a420fe17f8d63ec
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9212

Stratospheric modulation of cold air outbreaks and winter storms in the North Atlantic region and impacts on predictability

Autor: Johanna Baehr, Ole Wulff, Paolo Ruggieri, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Michael Sprenger, Lukas Papritz, Martin P. King, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Iuliia Polkova, Panos Athanasiadis

Variability of the stratospheric polar vortex has the potential to influence surface weather by imposing negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) conditions, associated with cold air outbreaks in the Arctic and a southward shift of the extratropical

Externí odkaz: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::83c82b912aa8b8fa7eeb86ea604c7cdf
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4629