A pre-registered short-term forecasting study of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during the second wave

Autor: Bracher, J, Wolffram, D, Deuschel, J, Görgen, K, Ketterer, JL, Ullrich, A, Abbott, S, Barbarossa, MV, Bertsimas, D, Bhatia, S, Bodych, M, Bosse, NI, Burgard, JP, Castro, L, Fairchild, G, Fuhrmann, J, Funk, S, Gogolewski, K, Gu, Q, Heyder, S, Hotz, T, Kheifetz, Y, Kirsten, H, Krueger, T, Krymova, E, Li, ML, Meinke, JH, Michaud, IJ, Niedzielewski, K, Ożański, T, Rakowski, F, Scholz, M, Soni, S, Srivastava, A, Zieliński, J, Zou, D, Gneiting, T, Schienle, M, List of Contributors by Team

Disease modelling has had considerable policy impact during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and it is increasingly acknowledged that combining multiple models can improve the reliability of outputs. Here we report insights from ten weeks of collaborat

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https://researchonline.lshtm.ac.uk/id/eprint/4662306/1/s41467-021-25207-0.pdf

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A pre-registered short-term forecasting study of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during the second wave.

Autor: Bracher J; Chair of Statistics and Econometrics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany. johannes.bracher@kit.edu.; Computational Statistics Group, Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies (HITS), Heidelberg, Germany. johannes.bracher@kit.edu., Wolffram D; Chair of Statistics and Econometrics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany.; Computational Statistics Group, Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies (HITS), Heidelberg, Germany., Deuschel J; Chair of Statistics and Econometrics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany., Görgen K; Chair of Statistics and Econometrics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany., Ketterer JL; Chair of Statistics and Econometrics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany., Ullrich A; Robert Koch Institute (RKI), Berlin, Germany., Abbott S; London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK., Barbarossa MV; Frankfurt Institute for Advanced Studies, Frankfurt, Germany., Bertsimas D; Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA., Bhatia S; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), Imperial College London, London, UK., Bodych M; Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Wroclaw, Poland., Bosse NI; London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK., Burgard JP; Economic and Social Statistics Department, University of Trier, Trier, Germany., Castro L; Information Systems and Modeling, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA., Fairchild G; Information Systems and Modeling, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA., Fuhrmann J; Frankfurt Institute for Advanced Studies, Frankfurt, Germany.; Jülich Supercomputing Centre, Forschungszentrum Jülich, Jülich, Germany., Funk S; London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK., Gogolewski K; Institute of Informatics, University of Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland., Gu Q; Department of Computer Science, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA., Heyder S; Institute of Mathematics, Technische Universität Ilmenau, Ilmenau, Germany., Hotz T; Institute of Mathematics, Technische Universität Ilmenau, Ilmenau, Germany., Kheifetz Y; Institute for Medical Informatics, Statistics and Epidemiology, University of Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany., Kirsten H; Institute for Medical Informatics, Statistics and Epidemiology, University of Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany., Krueger T; Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Wroclaw, Poland., Krymova E; Swiss Data Science Center, ETH Zurich and EPFL, Lausanne, Switzerland., Li ML; Operations Research Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA., Meinke JH; Jülich Supercomputing Centre, Forschungszentrum Jülich, Jülich, Germany., Michaud IJ; Statistical Sciences Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA., Niedzielewski K; Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modeling, University of Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland., Ożański T; Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Wroclaw, Poland., Rakowski F; Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modeling, University of Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland., Scholz M; Institute for Medical Informatics, Statistics and Epidemiology, University of Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany., Soni S; Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA., Srivastava A; Ming Hsieh Department of Computer and Electrical Engineering, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA., Zieliński J; Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modeling, University of Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland., Zou D; Department of Computer Science, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA., Gneiting T; Computational Statistics Group, Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies (HITS), Heidelberg, Germany.; Institute for Stochastics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany., Schienle M; Chair of Statistics and Econometrics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany. melanie.schienle@kit.edu.

Publikováno v: Nature communications [Nat Commun] 2021 Aug 27; Vol. 12 (1), pp. 5173. Date of Electronic Publication: 2021 Aug 27.