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We consider two ways that one might convert a prediction of sea surface temperature (SST) into a prediction of landfalling hurricane numbers. First, one might regress historical numbers of landfalling hurricanes onto historical SSTs, and use the fitt
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0701176
Autor:
Jewson, Stephen, Laepple, Thomas, O'Shay, Adam, Penzer, Jeremy, Bellone, Enrica, Nzerem, Kechi
One possible method for predicting landfalling hurricane numbers is to first predict the number of hurricanes in the basin and then convert that prediction to a prediction of landfalling hurricane numbers using an estimated proportion. Should this wo
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0701166
There is significant correlation between main development region sea surface temperature and the number of hurricanes that form in the Atlantic basin. The correlation between the same sea surface temperatures and the number of \emph{landfalling} hurr
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0701175
We are building a hurricane number prediction scheme based on first predicting main development region sea surface temperature (SST), then predicting the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin given the SST prediction, and finally predicting the
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0701170
The time series of the number of hurricanes per year in the Atlantic basin shows a clear change of level between 1994 and 1995. The time series of the number of hurricanes that make landfall in the US, however, does not show the same obvious change o
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0611107