Human judgement forecasting of COVID-19 in the UK [version 2; peer review: 2 approved]

Autor: Nikos I. Bosse, Sam Abbott, Johannes Bracher, Sebastian Funk, Anne Cori, Edwin van Leeuwen

Publikováno v: Wellcome Open Research, Vol 8 (2024)

Background In the past, two studies found ensembles of human judgement forecasts of COVID-19 to show predictive performance comparable to ensembles of computational models, at least when predicting case incidences. We present a follow-up to a study c

Externí odkaz: https://doaj.org/article/acd2a9a3fbf94b7988cf0945f450999e

Implications of the school-household network structure on SARS-CoV-2 transmission under school reopening strategies in England

Autor: James D. Munday, Katharine Sherratt, Sophie Meakin, Akira Endo, Carl A. B. Pearson, Joel Hellewell, Sam Abbott, Nikos I. Bosse, CMMID COVID-19 Working Group, Katherine E. Atkins, Jacco Wallinga, W. John Edmunds, Albert Jan van Hoek, Sebastian Funk

Publikováno v: Nature Communications, Vol 12, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2021)

Many countries have closed schools as part of their COVID-19 response. Here, the authors model SARS-CoV-2 transmission on a network of schools and households in England, and find that risk of transmission between schools is lower if primary schools a

Externí odkaz: https://doaj.org/article/63467632be864d238993e38c87705b62

Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths [version 1; peer review: 2 approved]

Autor: Thibaut Jombart, Kevin van Zandvoort, Timothy W. Russell, Christopher I. Jarvis, Amy Gimma, Sam Abbott, Sam Clifford, Sebastian Funk, Hamish Gibbs, Yang Liu, Carl A. B. Pearson, Nikos I. Bosse, Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 Working Group, Rosalind M. Eggo, Adam J. Kucharski, W. John Edmunds

Publikováno v: Wellcome Open Research, Vol 5 (2020)

We estimate the number of COVID-19 cases from newly reported deaths in a population without previous reports. Our results suggest that by the time a single death occurs, hundreds to thousands of cases are likely to be present in that population. This

Externí odkaz: https://doaj.org/article/813d11e1a8284b95aef5968380eafb54

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Autor: Katharine Sherratt, Hugo Gruson, Rok Grah, Helen Johnson, Rene Niehus, Bastian Prasse, Frank Sandmann, Jannik Deuschel, Daniel Wolffram, Sam Abbott, Alexander Ullrich, Graham Gibson, Evan L Ray, Nicholas G Reich, Daniel Sheldon, Yijin Wang, Nutcha Wattanachit, Lijing Wang, Jan Trnka, Guillaume Obozinski, Tao Sun, Dorina Thanou, Loic Pottier, Ekaterina Krymova, Jan H Meinke, Maria Vittoria Barbarossa, Neele Leithäuser, Jan Mohring, Johanna Schneider, Jaroslaw Włazło, Jan Fuhrmann, Berit Lange, Isti Rodiah, Prasith Baccam, Heidi Gurung, Steven Stage, Bradley Suchoski, Jozef Budzinski, Robert Walraven, Inmaculada Villanueva, Vit Tucek, Martin Smid, Milan Zajíček, Cesar Pérez Álvarez, Borja Reina, Nikos I Bosse, Sophie R Meakin, Lauren Castro, Geoffrey Fairchild, Isaac Michaud, Dave Osthus, Pierfrancesco Alaimo Di Loro, Antonello Maruotti, Veronika Eclerová, Andrea Kraus, David Kraus, Lenka Pribylova, Bertsimas Dimitris, Michael Lingzhi Li, Soni Saksham, Jonas Dehning, Sebastian Mohr, Viola Priesemann, Grzegorz Redlarski, Benjamin Bejar, Giovanni Ardenghi, Nicola Parolini, Giovanni Ziarelli, Wolfgang Bock, Stefan Heyder, Thomas Hotz, David E Singh, Miguel Guzman-Merino, Jose L Aznarte, David Moriña, Sergio Alonso, Enric Álvarez, Daniel López, Clara Prats, Jan Pablo Burgard, Arne Rodloff, Tom Zimmermann, Alexander Kuhlmann, Janez Zibert, Fulvia Pennoni, Fabio Divino, Marti Català, Gianfranco Lovison, Paolo Giudici, Barbara Tarantino, Francesco Bartolucci, Giovanna Jona Lasinio, Marco Mingione, Alessio Farcomeni, Ajitesh Srivastava, Pablo Montero-Manso, Aniruddha Adiga, Benjamin Hurt, Bryan Lewis, Madhav Marathe, Przemyslaw Porebski, Srinivasan Venkatramanan, Rafal P Bartczuk, Filip Dreger, Anna Gambin, Krzysztof Gogolewski, Magdalena Gruziel-Słomka, Bartosz Krupa, Antoni Moszyński, Karol Niedzielewski, Jedrzej Nowosielski, Maciej Radwan, Franciszek Rakowski, Marcin Semeniuk, Ewa Szczurek, Jakub Zieliński, Jan Kisielewski, Barbara Pabjan, Holger Kirsten, Yuri Kheifetz, Markus Scholz, Przemyslaw Biecek, Marcin Bodych, Maciej Filinski, Radoslaw Idzikowski, Tyll Krueger, Tomasz Ozanski, Johannes Bracher, Sebastian Funk

Publikováno v: eLife, vol. 12, no. e81916, 2023.
eLife 12, e81916 (2023). doi:10.7554/eLife.81916
eLife, 19 str. : Ilustr., [article no.] e81916, Vol. 12, 2023
COBISS-ID: 523069721

eLife 12, e81916 (2023). doi:10.7554/eLife.81916
Background:Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infect

Externí odkaz: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::ad9c2a1603809059ffc8562e7151c226
https://hdl.handle.net/10281/413538

The potential health and economic value of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination alongside physical distancing in the UK: a transmission model-based future scenario analysis and economic evaluation

Autor: Fiona Yueqian Sun, Matthew Quaife, Carl A. B. Pearson, C. Julian Villabona-Arenas, Frank Sandmann, Timothy W Russell, Gwenan M. Knight, Mark Jit, W. John Edmunds, Stefan Flasche, Thibaut Jombart, Katharine Sherratt, Adam J. Kucharski, Hamish Gibbs, Joel Hellewell, Yung Wai Desmond Chan, Sebastian Funk, Kiesha Prem, Alicia Showering, Simon R Procter, Graham F. Medley, Yang Liu, Nikos I Bosse, Oliver J. Brady, Kaja Abbas, James D Munday, Megan Auzenbergs, Petra Klepac, Nicholas G Davies, Alicia Rosello, Christopher I Jarvis, Rachel Lowe, Anna M Foss, Sophie Meakin, Sam Abbott, Amy Gimma, Naomi R. Waterlow, Akira Endo, Samuel Clifford, Kevin van Zandvoort, Rosanna C. Barnard, Anna Vassall, Billy J Quilty, Charlie Diamond, Damien C. Tully, Georgia R. Gore-Langton, Katherine E. Atkins, Emily Nightingale, Jack Williams, Rosalind M Eggo, David Simons

Publikováno v: The Lancet. Infectious Diseases
Sandmann, F G, Davies, N G, Vassall, A, Edmunds, W J, Jit, M 2021, ' The potential health and economic value of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination alongside physical distancing in the UK : a transmission model-based future scenario analysis and economic evaluation ', The Lancet Infectious Diseases, vol. 21, no. 7, pp. 962-974 . https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(21)00079-7
The Lancet Infectious Diseases

Background: In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the UK first adopted physical distancing measures in March, 2020. Vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 became available in December, 2020. We explored the health and economic value of introducing SARS-CoV-2 im

Externí odkaz: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::c8a4681a49252ec042179a58741702e9
https://doi.org/10.1016/s1473-3099(21)00079-7