Heatwave attribution based on reliable operational weather forecasts

Autor: Nicholas J. Leach, Christopher D. Roberts, Matthias Aengenheyster, Daniel Heathcote, Dann M. Mitchell, Vikki Thompson, Tim Palmer, Antje Weisheimer, Myles R. Allen

Publikováno v: Nature Communications, Vol 15, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2024)

Abstract The 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave was so extreme as to challenge conventional statistical and climate-model-based approaches to extreme weather attribution. However, state-of-the-art operational weather prediction systems are demonstrably

Externí odkaz: https://doaj.org/article/1d69bb4b4f844d15b3d2075161228365

Event attribution of a midlatitude windstorm using ensemble weather forecasts

Autor: Shirin Ermis, Nicholas J Leach, Fraser C Lott, Sarah N Sparrow, Antje Weisheimer

Publikováno v: Environmental Research: Climate, Vol 3, Iss 3, p 035001 (2024)

The widespread destruction incurred by midlatitude storms every year makes it an imperative to study how storms change with climate. The impact of climate change on midlatitude windstorms, however, is hard to evaluate due to the small signals in vari

Externí odkaz: https://doaj.org/article/a4c27d3c393d4ad6a95cacda432a7c4a

Sustainable pathways towards climate and biodiversity goals in the UK: the importance of managing land-use synergies and trade-offs

Autor: Alison C. Smith, Paula A. Harrison, Nicholas J. Leach, H. Charles J. Godfray, Jim W. Hall, Sarah M. Jones, Sarah S. Gall, Michael Obersteiner

Publikováno v: Sustainability Science. 18:521-538

Agricultural and environmental policies are being fundamentally reviewed and redesigned in the UK following its exit from the European Union. The UK government and the Devolved Administrations recognise that current land use is not sustainable and th

Externí odkaz: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::5e855a2fa5113f7f7e0a154ef7b4cfa8
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-022-01242-8

Generating samples of extreme winters to support climate adaptation

Autor: Sarah Sparrow, Peter A. G. Watson, David M. H. Sexton, David Wallom, Nicholas J. Leach

Publikováno v: Leach, N, Watson, P A G, Sparrow, S, Wallom, D & Sexton, D 2022, ' Generating samples of extreme winters to support climate adaptation ', Weather and Climate Extremes, vol. 36, 100419 . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2022.100419

Recent extreme weather across the globe highlights the need to understand the potential for more extreme events in the present-day, and how such events may change with global warming. We present a methodology for more efficiently sampling extremes in

Externí odkaz: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::9f41c3c422f45af63f2a22669f497ce7
https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:34e752db-d59b-4d49-81b6-45a28e4c10d5

FaIRv2.0.0: a generalised impulse-response model for climate uncertainty and future scenario exploration

Autor: Nicholas J. Leach, Stuart Jenkins, Zebedee Nicholls, Christopher J. Smith, John Lynch, Michelle Cain, Tristram Walsh, Bill Wu, Junichi Tsutsui, Myles R. Allen

Here we present an update to the FaIR model for use in probabilistic future climate and scenario exploration, integrated assessment, policy analysis and education. In this update we have focussed on identifying a minimum level of structural complexit

Externí odkaz: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::c4daa55807a827e1696a790a21ea6c3e
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-390