Zobrazeno 1 - 10
of 85
pro vyhledávání: '"Niall J. MacKay"'
Publikováno v:
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society. 183:909-933
It has been claimed and disputed that World War II has been followed by a `long peace', an unprecedented decline of war. We conduct a full changepoint analysis of well-documented, publicly-available battle deaths datasets, using new techniques that e
Externí odkaz:
https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::dbe7ed51d9c74c92af7c6802b5e1adf0
https://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12578
https://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12578
Autor:
Martin A. Bees, Gustav W. Delius, George W. A. Constable, Niall J. MacKay, Ben Powell, Jon W. Pitchford
We use an established semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model of the COVID-19 pandemic [1], driven by European mortality data, to estimate the prevalence of immunity. We allow the infection-fatality ratio (IFR) to vary, adapt the model’s prior
Externí odkaz:
https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::cd229682fa75196496cce01d3d95f1c1
Publikováno v:
Operations Research. 66:950-956
The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/opre.2018.1718 We extend classical force-on-force combat models to study the attrition dynamics of three-way and multilateral war. We introduce a new multilateral combat mod
Externí odkaz:
https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::2f46cfd13aa4a3a3f967cbbc41f00f15
https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2018.1718
https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2018.1718
Publikováno v:
Significance. 14:14-19
Historical outcomes were at one time only possibilities – but how do we distinguish probable real events from improbable ones? Niall MacKay, Chris Price and A. Jamie Wood use a naval battle of the First World War to explain how Bayesian thinking he
Externí odkaz:
https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::3da11ede8bfe83ff9141d03ff30f2b88
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1740-9713.2017.01034.x
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1740-9713.2017.01034.x
Publikováno v:
Physics Letters A. 381:1340-1348
We present a general method of folding an integrable spin chain, defined on a line, to obtain an integrable open spin chain, defined on a half-line. We illustrate our method through two fundamental models with sl(2) Lie algebra symmetry: the Heisenbe
Externí odkaz:
https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::f56b20d0782c73941240cef6f20f9fce
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physleta.2017.02.039
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physleta.2017.02.039
Autor:
Niall J. MacKay
Publikováno v:
Pioneers in Arts, Humanities, Science, Engineering, Practice ISBN: 9783030315887
Simple dynamical systems, in the spirit of Richardson’s arms race, can be used to investigate the core dynamics of various models of insurgent and multilateral war. This chapter describes two such models. The first combines Richardson’s two-natio
Externí odkaz:
https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::7fc646a45e056936936f4407fae0ad63
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-31589-4_9
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-31589-4_9
The article of record as published may be found at https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2020.2022 Existing Lanchester combat models focus on two force parameters: numbers (force size) and per-capita effectiveness (attrition rate). While these two parameters
Externí odkaz:
https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::cb85e527ee796b0ba274e3674394efb0
https://hdl.handle.net/10945/66370
https://hdl.handle.net/10945/66370
Publikováno v:
Europhysics Letters. 133:53001
We describe a new phenomenon in models of coalescence and fragmentation, that of gel-shatter cycles. These are dynamical, unforced, stochastic cycles in which slow, approximately deterministic coalescence up to and beyond gelation is followed by abru
Externí odkaz:
https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::6df3fdf61466268bfe6ee4237e11eba9
https://doi.org/10.1209/0295-5075/133/53001
https://doi.org/10.1209/0295-5075/133/53001
Publikováno v:
History. 101:536-563
We re-analyse the 1916 Battle of Jutland (German: Skagerrak), the major naval engagement of the First World War, in the light of the understanding of dreadnought fleet tactics developed over the decade leading up to it. In particular, we consider the
Externí odkaz:
https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::8d3c113db55e03019a61c90091042935
https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-229x.12241
https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-229x.12241
Autor:
Dominic D. P. Johnson, Niall J. MacKay
Publikováno v:
Evolution and Human Behavior. 36:152-163
Lanchester's "Laws of Combat" are mathematical principles that have long been used to model military conflict. More recently, they have been applied to conflict among animals, including ants, birds, lions, and chimpanzees. Lanchester's Linear Law sta
Externí odkaz:
https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::0556800a3bb53c6b99a9e7479cbc38a8
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.evolhumbehav.2014.11.001
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.evolhumbehav.2014.11.001