Zobrazeno 1 - 10 of 70 pro vyhledávání: '"Michael T. Kiley"'
1
The Role of Wages in Trend Inflation: Back to the 1980s?
Autor: Michael T. Kiley
Publikováno v: Finance and Economics Discussion Series. :1-27
This paper examines whether the measurement of trend inflation can be improved by using wage data in a dynamic factor model of disaggregated prices and wages for the United States. The model features time-varying coefficients and stochastic volatilit
Externí odkaz: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::2bbacdc4e09ed2082b7dcf315005b2b0
https://doi.org/10.17016/feds.2023.022
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2
Growth at Risk From Climate Change
Autor: Michael T. Kiley
Publikováno v: Finance and Economics Discussion Series. 2021:1-19
How will climate change affect risks to economic activity? Research on climate impacts has tended to focus on effects on the average level of economic growth. I examine whether climate change may make severe contractions in economic activity more lik
Externí odkaz: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::b2dedb5585cbe5857e6d9d2f6d0625aa
https://doi.org/10.17016/feds.2021.054
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3
Anchored or Not: A Short Summary of a Bayesian Approach to the Persistence of Inflation
Autor: Michael T. Kiley
Publikováno v: FEDS Notes. 2022
Consumer price inflation in the United States, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, jumped to just above 7 percent in the twelve months ending in December 2021. Inflation in 2021 reached the highest level seen since the early 1980s. The jump in i
Externí odkaz: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::0e5c6b61cdb60cfdf9abc03847e27d8f
https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.3049
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4
Financial Conditions and Economic Activity: Insights from Machine Learning
Autor: Michael T. Kiley
Publikováno v: Finance and Economics Discussion Series. 2020:1-40
Machine learning (ML) techniques are used to construct a financial conditions index (FCI). The components of the ML‐FCI are selected based on their ability to predict the unemployment rate one‐year ahead. Three lessons for macroeconomics and vari
Externí odkaz: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::b4cbb64b5e2ba5c9fd52628af3ede7f4
https://doi.org/10.17016/feds.2020.095
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6
Financial and Macroeconomic Indicators of Recession Risk
Autor: Michael T. Kiley
Publikováno v: FEDS Notes. -None
Recessions impose sizable hardship, with large increases in the unemployment rate and related dislocations. In addition, recessions can lead to large shifts in financial markets. As a result, economists and financial market professionals have conside
Externí odkaz: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::2828acf64cc5a9b5bb26d1d979b87503
https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.3126
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8
Monetary Policy Space in a Recession: Some Simple Interest Rate Arithmetic
Autor: Michael T. Kiley
Publikováno v: FEDS Notes. 2020
As an alternative, two recession scenarios are presented in which interest rates change from October 2019 levels by the same amount as seen, on average, around the 1990 and 2001 recessions.
Externí odkaz: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::23d069683fd441ecba5fac6ed17935cb
https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2484
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9
Monetary Policy in a Low Interest Rate World
Autor: John M. Roberts, Michael T. Kiley
Publikováno v: Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. 2017:317-396
Nominal interest rates may remain substantially below the averages of the last half century, because central banks' inflation objectives lie below the average level of inflation, and estimates of the real interest rate that are likely to prevail over
Externí odkaz: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::4acd4bf698fca8955d4d715b263229aa
https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2017.0004
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10
The Global Equilibrium Real Interest Rate: Concepts, Estimates, and Challenges
Autor: Michael T. Kiley
Publikováno v: Finance and Economics Discussion Series. 2019
Real interest rates have been persistently below historical norms over the past decade, leading economists and policymakers to view the equilibrium real interest rate as likely to be low for some time. Various definitions and approaches to estimating
Externí odkaz: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::4159e0484b4b3f12b322e409f9eab2a9
https://doi.org/10.17016/feds.2019.076
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