A statistical look at Modeen's forecast of the population of Finland in 1934

Autor: Juha M. Alho

Publikováno v: Finnish Yearbook of Population Research, Vol 36 (2000)

Gunnar Modeen made the first cohort-component forecast for Finland in 1934. This was a time when demographic transition was just over, but that fact could not have been known at the time. Would it have made any difference if Modeen had had the tools

Externí odkaz: https://doaj.org/article/eda014108f9b4714b305be86d9d4ed45

Uncertain Demographics and Fiscal Sustainability

Autor: Juha M. Alho, Svend E. Hougaard Jensen, Jukka Lassila

There is widespread acceptance that much of the developed world faces a potential pensions and welfare crisis as a result of declining birth rates and an ageing population. However, there is considerable uncertainty about the specifics of demographic

Forecasting Life Expectancy: A Statistical Look at Model Choice and Use of Auxiliary Series

Autor: Juha M. Alho

Publikováno v: Demographic Research Monographs ISBN: 9783030050740

Let μ (x,t) be the hazard (or force) of mortality in age x at time t. Define p(x,t) as the probability of surviving to age x, under the hazards of time t, or

Externí odkaz: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::aec92faae8f9a43b840d5b19d42a1603
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05075-7_15

Introduction

Autor: Tommy Bengtsson, Nico Keilman, Juha M. Alho, Kaare Christensen, Edward Palmer, James W. Vaupel

Publikováno v: Demographic Research Monographs ISBN: 9783030050740
Bengtsson, T, Keilman, N, Alho, J, Christensen, K, Palmer, E & Vaupel, J W 2019, Introduction . in T Bengtsson & N Keilman (eds), Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting . Springer, Demographic Research Monographs, pp. 1-19 . https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05075-7_1

Globally, the twenty-first century will witness rapid population ageing. Already in 2050, one out of five persons in the world, and one out of three in Europe, is expected to be 60 or over (UN 2015). Moreover, we have entered into a new stage of popu

Externí odkaz: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::af6df45f73a9158d9e353dbc507b5e13
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05075-7_1

Annuity-Based Assessment of Uncertainty in Mortality

Autor: Juha M. Alho

Publikováno v: Revue économique. 59:927-940

On considere souvent que les mouvements demographiques sont lents, surtout lorsqu’on les compare a la volatilite des variables economiques. Pourtant, dans certains cas, les chocs demographiques semblent avoir des consequences economiques. Meme la m

Externí odkaz: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::fdc424c7f954070eaa80efa7f0cf686b
https://doi.org/10.3917/reco.595.0927