Zobrazeno 1 - 10
of 54
pro vyhledávání: '"Jonathan J, Forster"'
Publikováno v:
Demographic Research, Vol 47, p 22 (2022)
Background: Discrete-time event history analysis (EHA) is the standard approach taken when modelling fertility histories collected in surveys, where the date of birth is often recorded imprecisely. This method is commonly used to investigate the fact
Externí odkaz:
https://doaj.org/article/07a69f148d7141fdbc7cf3249d655204
Stochastic models are appealing for mortality forecasting in their ability to generate intervals that quantify uncertainties underlying the forecasts. We present a fully Bayesian implementation of the age-period-cohort-improvement (APCI) model with o
Externí odkaz:
https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::dc8ab87a81950dffb0ae3c1442bb4222
https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/476901/
https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/476901/
Publikováno v:
International Migration Review. 56:33-62
Asylum-related migration is highly complex, uncertain, and volatile, which precludes using standard model-based predictions to inform policy and operational decisions. At the same time, asylum's potentially high societal impacts on receiving countrie
Publikováno v:
Scandinavian Actuarial Journal. 2021:134-155
We propose a comprehensive and coherent approach for mortality projection using a maximum-likelihood method which benefits from full use of the substantial data available on mortality rates, their improvement rates, and the associated variability. Un
Publikováno v:
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society. 183:829-856
The main reason for modelling fertility rates is to generate population estimates and forecasts. Previously deterministic in nature, the current fertility literature is favouring stochastic approaches, making models within a Bayesian framework very a
Publikováno v:
Statistics and Computing. 30:799-816
Computation of normalizing constants is a fundamental mathematical problem in various disciplines, particularly in Bayesian model selection problems. A sampling-based technique known as bridge sampling (Meng and Wong in Stat Sin 6(4):831–860, 1996)
Publikováno v:
Journal of Official Statistics, Vol 37, Iss 3, Pp 569-589 (2021)
Mortality rates differ across countries and years, and the country with the lowest observed mortality has changed over time. However, the classic Science paper by Oeppen and Vaupel (2002) identified a persistent linear trend over time in maximum nati
Externí odkaz:
https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::aff0301cf083897b829fb25693b3318a
http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/159489/8/WRAP-Modelling-frontier-mortality-using-Bayesian-generalised-2021.pdf
http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/159489/8/WRAP-Modelling-frontier-mortality-using-Bayesian-generalised-2021.pdf
Raw mortality data often exhibit irregular patterns due to randomness. Graduation refers to the act of smoothing crude mortality rates. In this paper, we propose a flexible and robust methodology for graduating mortality rates using adaptive P-spline
Externí odkaz:
https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::965b648139ac1b83b3bac7d69870bca2
https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/449417/
https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/449417/
Autor:
George Disney, Peter K. Smith, Allan Findlay, Jakub Bijak, Jonathan J. Forster, Arkadiusz Wiśniowski
Publikováno v:
Bijak, J, Disney, G, Findlay, A M, Forster, J J, Smith, P W F & Wiśniowski, A 2019, ' Assessing time series models for forecasting international migration: Lessons from the United Kingdom ', Journal of Forecasting, vol. 38, no. 5, pp. 470-487 . https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2576
Funding: This work was funded by the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC), UK Home Office, under the Home Office Science contract HOS/14/040, and also supported by the ESRC Centre for Population Change grant ES/K007394/1. Migration is one of the most u
Forecasts of mortality provide vital information about future populations, with implications for pension and health-care policy as well as for decisions made by private companies about life insurance and annuity pricing. Stochastic mortality forecast
Externí odkaz:
https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::bd575c82b9c02587760fafa3467d2968
https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/417513/
https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/417513/