Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States

Autor: Estee Y. Cramer, Evan L. Ray, Velma K. Lopez, Johannes Bracher, Andrea Brennen, Alvaro J. Castro Rivadeneira, Aaron Gerding, Tilmann Gneiting, Katie H. House, Yuxin Huang, Dasuni Jayawardena, Abdul H. Kanji, Ayush Khandelwal, Khoa Le, Anja Mühlemann, Jarad Niemi, Apurv Shah, Ariane Stark, Yijin Wang, Nutcha Wattanachit, Martha W. Zorn, Youyang Gu, Sansiddh Jain, Nayana Bannur, Ayush Deva, Mihir Kulkarni, Srujana Merugu, Alpan Raval, Siddhant Shingi, Avtansh Tiwari, Jerome White, Neil F. Abernethy, Spencer Woody, Maytal Dahan, Spencer Fox, Kelly Gaither, Michael Lachmann, Lauren Ancel Meyers, James G. Scott, Mauricio Tec, Ajitesh Srivastava, Glover E. George, Jeffrey C. Cegan, Ian D. Dettwiller, William P. England, Matthew W. Farthing, Robert H. Hunter, Brandon Lafferty, Igor Linkov, Michael L. Mayo, Matthew D. Parno, Michael A. Rowland, Benjamin D. Trump, Yanli Zhang-James, Samuel Chen, Stephen V. Faraone, Jonathan Hess, Christopher P. Morley, Asif Salekin, Dongliang Wang, Sabrina M. Corsetti, Thomas M. Baer, Marisa C. Eisenberg, Karl Falb, Yitao Huang, Emily T. Martin, Ella McCauley, Robert L. Myers, Tom Schwarz, Daniel Sheldon, Graham Casey Gibson, Rose Yu, Liyao Gao, Yian Ma, Dongxia Wu, Xifeng Yan, Xiaoyong Jin, Yu-Xiang Wang, YangQuan Chen, Lihong Guo, Yanting Zhao, Quanquan Gu, Jinghui Chen, Lingxiao Wang, Pan Xu, Weitong Zhang, Difan Zou, Hannah Biegel, Joceline Lega, Steve McConnell, V. P. Nagraj, Stephanie L. Guertin, Christopher Hulme-Lowe, Stephen D. Turner, Yunfeng Shi, Xuegang Ban, Robert Walraven, Qi-Jun Hong, Stanley Kong, Axel van de Walle, James A. Turtle, Michal Ben-Nun, Steven Riley, Pete Riley, Ugur Koyluoglu, David DesRoches, Pedro Forli, Bruce Hamory, Christina Kyriakides, Helen Leis, John Milliken, Michael Moloney, James Morgan, Ninad Nirgudkar, Gokce Ozcan, Noah Piwonka, Matt Ravi, Chris Schrader, Elizabeth Shakhnovich, Daniel Siegel, Ryan Spatz, Chris Stiefeling, Barrie Wilkinson, Alexander Wong, Sean Cavany, Guido España, Sean Moore, Rachel Oidtman, Alex Perkins, David Kraus, Andrea Kraus, Zhifeng Gao, Jiang Bian, Wei Cao, Juan Lavista Ferres, Chaozhuo Li, Tie-Yan Liu, Xing Xie, Shun Zhang, Shun Zheng, Alessandro Vespignani, Matteo Chinazzi, Jessica T. Davis, Kunpeng Mu, Ana Pastore y Piontti, Xinyue Xiong, Andrew Zheng, Jackie Baek, Vivek Farias, Andreea Georgescu, Retsef Levi, Deeksha Sinha, Joshua Wilde, Georgia Perakis, Mohammed Amine Bennouna, David Nze-Ndong, Divya Singhvi, Ioannis Spantidakis, Leann Thayaparan, Asterios Tsiourvas, Arnab Sarker, Ali Jadbabaie, Devavrat Shah, Nicolas Della Penna, Leo A. Celi, Saketh Sundar, Russ Wolfinger, Dave Osthus, Lauren Castro, Geoffrey Fairchild, Isaac Michaud, Dean Karlen, Matt Kinsey, Luke C. Mullany, Kaitlin Rainwater-Lovett, Lauren Shin, Katharine Tallaksen, Shelby Wilson, Elizabeth C. Lee, Juan Dent, Kyra H. Grantz, Alison L. Hill, Joshua Kaminsky, Kathryn Kaminsky, Lindsay T. Keegan, Stephen A. Lauer, Joseph C. Lemaitre, Justin Lessler, Hannah R. Meredith, Javier Perez-Saez, Sam Shah, Claire P. Smith, Shaun A. Truelove, Josh Wills, Maximilian Marshall, Lauren Gardner, Kristen Nixon, John C. Burant, Lily Wang, Lei Gao, Zhiling Gu, Myungjin Kim, Xinyi Li, Guannan Wang, Yueying Wang, Shan Yu, Robert C. Reiner, Ryan Barber, Emmanuela Gakidou, Simon I. Hay, Steve Lim, Chris Murray, David Pigott, Heidi L. Gurung, Prasith Baccam, Steven A. Stage, Bradley T. Suchoski, B. Aditya Prakash, Bijaya Adhikari, Jiaming Cui, Alexander Rodríguez, Anika Tabassum, Jiajia Xie, Pinar Keskinocak, John Asplund, Arden Baxter, Buse Eylul Oruc, Nicoleta Serban, Sercan O. Arik, Mike Dusenberry, Arkady Epshteyn, Elli Kanal, Long T. Le, Chun-Liang Li, Tomas Pfister, Dario Sava, Rajarishi Sinha, Thomas Tsai, Nate Yoder, Jinsung Yoon, Leyou Zhang, Sam Abbott, Nikos I. Bosse, Sebastian Funk, Joel Hellewell, Sophie R. Meakin, Katharine Sherratt, Mingyuan Zhou, Rahi Kalantari, Teresa K. Yamana, Sen Pei, Jeffrey Shaman, Michael L. Li, Dimitris Bertsimas, Omar Skali Lami, Saksham Soni, Hamza Tazi Bouardi, Turgay Ayer, Madeline Adee, Jagpreet Chhatwal, Ozden O. Dalgic, Mary A. Ladd, Benjamin P. Linas, Peter Mueller, Jade Xiao, Yuanjia Wang, Qinxia Wang, Shanghong Xie, Donglin Zeng, Alden Green, Jacob Bien, Logan Brooks, Addison J. Hu, Maria Jahja, Daniel McDonald, Balasubramanian Narasimhan, Collin Politsch, Samyak Rajanala, Aaron Rumack, Noah Simon, Ryan J. Tibshirani, Rob Tibshirani, Valerie Ventura, Larry Wasserman, Eamon B. O’Dea, John M. Drake, Robert Pagano, Quoc T. Tran, Lam Si Tung Ho, Huong Huynh, Jo W. Walker, Rachel B. Slayton, Michael A. Johansson, Matthew Biggerstaff, Nicholas G. Reich

Publikováno v: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 119 (15), e2113561119
Cramer, Estee Y; Ray, Evan L; Lopez, Velma K; Bracher, Johannes; Brennen, Andrea; Castro Rivadeneira, Alvaro J; Gerding, Aaron; Gneiting, Tilmann; House, Katie H; Huang, Yuxin; Jayawardena, Dasuni; Kanji, Abdul H; Khandelwal, Ayush; Le, Khoa; Mühlemann, Anja; Niemi, Jarad; Shah, Apurv; Stark, Ariane; Wang, Yijin; Wattanachit, Nutcha; ... (2022). Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America-PNAS, 119(15), e2113561119. National Academy of Sciences NAS 10.1073/pnas.2113561119

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers.

Externí odkaz: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::29b6cba2d89d92464e18aa78eeb93f7a
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35394862

Euthyphro, the Good, and the Right

Autor: John Milliken

Publikováno v: Philosophia Christi. 11:145-155

The Euthyphro dilemma is widely deployed as an argument against theistic accounts of ethics. The argument proceeds by trying to derive strongly counterintuitive implications from the view that God is the source of morality. I argue here that a genera

Externí odkaz: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::4a70fc209f0faec8d20b03a1b4049168
https://doi.org/10.5840/pc200911110

Aristotle's Aesthetic Ethics

Autor: John Milliken

Publikováno v: The Southern Journal of Philosophy. 44:319-339

It is sometimes asked whether virtue ethics can be assimilated by Kantianism or utilitarianism, or if it is a distinct position. A look at Aristotle's ethics shows that it certanly can be distinct. In particular, Aristotle presents us with an ethics

Externí odkaz: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::1e3688a30711450abc7351441fe1160e
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2041-6962.2006.tb00104.x

Quality or Control? Management in Higher Education

Autor: Gerry Colohan, John Milliken

Publikováno v: Journal of Higher Education Policy and Management. 26:381-391

Over the past fifteen years the rationale, organisational infrastructure and delivery of social policy in Britain have undergone radical transformation. Whereas efficiency was the key word of the 1980s, quality was the touchstone of the 1990s and qua

Externí odkaz: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::0c4a442a1ec1d4fbceb8a5c70e4d07a6
https://doi.org/10.1080/1360080042000290221

Love and Lament : A Novel

Autor: John Milliken Thompson

A dauntless heroine coming of age at the turn of the twentieth century confronts the hazards of patriarchy and prejudice, and discovers the unexpected opportunities of World War I Set in rural North Carolina between the Civil War and the Great War, L