Zobrazeno 1 - 10
of 43
pro vyhledávání: '"Jochen Bröcker"'
Publikováno v:
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 149:911-923
An anomalous signal-to-noise ratio (also called the signal-to-noise paradox) present in climate models has been widely reported, affecting predictions and projections from seasonal to centennial timescales and encompassing prediction skill from inter
Externí odkaz:
https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::e7737a62d75be5ae23daf71770436847
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4440
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4440
Autor:
Jochen Bröcker
Publikováno v:
Statistics and Computing. 32
A long noted difficulty when assessing calibration (or reliability) of forecasting systems is that calibration, in general, is a hypothesis not about a finite dimensional parameter but about an entire functional relationship. A calibrated probability
Externí odkaz:
https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::bb051f8c6ae0e80a93c4ad7527bda1b0
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11222-022-10144-9
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11222-022-10144-9
Ergodic properties of a stochastic medium complexity model for atmosphere and ocean dynamics are analysed. More specifically, a two-layer quasi-geostrophic model for geophysical flows is studied, with the upper layer being perturbed by additive noise
Externí odkaz:
https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::bdc123d707f3d1718fba5251c8a1dbb1
http://arxiv.org/abs/2201.09823
http://arxiv.org/abs/2201.09823
Autor:
Andrew J. Charlton‐Perez, Jochen Bröcker, Alexey Yu. Karpechko, Simon H. Lee, Michael Sigmond, Isla R. Simpson
Publikováno v:
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 126
Many recent studies have confirmed that variability in the stratosphere is a significant source of surface sub-seasonal prediction skill during Northern Hemisphere winter. It may be beneficial, therefore, to think about times in which there might be
Externí odkaz:
https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::f9d2d9744702486a1737bd22ada91d41
https://doi.org/10.1029/2021jd035504
https://doi.org/10.1029/2021jd035504
Autor:
Jochen Bröcker
A variant of the optimal control problem is considered which is nonstandard in that the performance index contains "stochastic" integrals, that is, integrals against very irregular functions. The motivation for considering such performance indices co
Externí odkaz:
https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::d9d3a4f3b999aebf5b0eeac688e426b3
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/100788/1/main.pdf
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/100788/1/main.pdf
Publikováno v:
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 145:3466-3478
Seasonal predictions of wintertime climate in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, while showing clear correlation skill, suffer from anomalously low signal‐to‐noise ratio. The low signal‐to‐noise ratio means that forecasts need to be made w
Externí odkaz:
https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::fef6e2d0271940959a2adfd97aa39644
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3631
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3631
Publikováno v:
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 145:1780-1798
Dynamical downscaling of ensemble forecasts to convectionpermitting resolutions aims to improve forecast skill by explicitly resolving mesoscale dynamical features. The success of this approach is dependent on the ability of the model to spin up smal
Externí odkaz:
https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::2fede36f32962c4b634daaa7eef34888
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3531
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3531
Autor:
Zied Ben Bouallègue, Jochen Bröcker
Rank histograms are a popular way to assess the reliability of ensemble forecasting systems. If the ensemble forecasting system is reliable, the rank histogram should be flat, ``up to statistical fluctuations''. There are two long noted challenges to
Externí odkaz:
https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::a34a1f8999c978ce9acf0eeeb0b59d6d
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/90143/1/author_published_version.pdf
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/90143/1/author_published_version.pdf
In the Climate Sciences, there is great interest in understanding the long term average behaviour of the climate system. In the context of climate models, this behaviour can be expressed intrinsically by concepts from the theory of dynamical systems
Externí odkaz:
https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::8b6f2ad47cbe03a87a497d2979c6ec76
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-17313
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-17313
Data assimilation is uniquely challenging in weather forecasting due to the high dimensionality of the employed models and the nonlinearity of the governing equations. Although current operational schemes are used successfully, our understanding of t
Externí odkaz:
https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::fb225f9a8c327237786eed5c286ac942
http://hdl.handle.net/11697/176632
http://hdl.handle.net/11697/176632