Projected resurgence of COVID-19 in the United States in July—December 2021 resulting from the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant and faltering vaccination

Autor: Shaun Truelove, Claire P Smith, Michelle Qin, Luke C Mullany, Rebecca K Borchering, Justin Lessler, Katriona Shea, Emily Howerton, Lucie Contamin, John Levander, Jessica Kerr, Harry Hochheiser, Matt Kinsey, Kate Tallaksen, Shelby Wilson, Lauren Shin, Kaitlin Rainwater-Lovett, Joseph C Lemairtre, Juan Dent, Joshua Kaminsky, Elizabeth C Lee, Javier Perez-Saez, Alison Hill, Dean Karlen, Matteo Chinazzi, Jessica T Davis, Kunpeng Mu, Xinyue Xiong, Ana Pastore y Piontti, Alessandro Vespignani, Ajitesh Srivastava, Przemyslaw Porebski, Srinivasan Venkatramanan, Aniruddha Adiga, Bryan Lewis, Brian Klahn, Joseph Outten, Mark Orr, Galen Harrison, Benjamin Hurt, Jiangzhuo Chen, Anil Vullikanti, Madhav Marathe, Stefan Hoops, Parantapa Bhattacharya, Dustin Machi, Shi Chen, Rajib Paul, Daniel Janies, Jean-Claude Thill, Marta Galanti, Teresa K Yamana, Sen Pei, Jeffrey L Shaman, Jessica M Healy, Rachel B Slayton, Matthew Biggerstaff, Michael A Johansson, Michael C Runge, Cecile Viboud

Publikováno v: eLife, Vol 11 (2022)

In Spring 2021, the highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant began to cause increases in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in parts of the United States. At the time, with slowed vaccination uptake, this novel variant was expected to increase

Externí odkaz: https://doaj.org/article/41cbbf43b8a64af4b8754cd45df5185d

Estimating incidence of infection from diverse data sources: Zika virus in Puerto Rico, 2016.

Autor: Talia M Quandelacy, Jessica M Healy, Bradford Greening, Dania M Rodriguez, Koo-Whang Chung, Matthew J Kuehnert, Brad J Biggerstaff, Emilio Dirlikov, Luis Mier-Y-Teran-Romero, Tyler M Sharp, Stephen Waterman, Michael A Johansson

Publikováno v: PLoS Computational Biology, Vol 17, Iss 3, p e1008812 (2021)

Emerging epidemics are challenging to track. Only a subset of cases is recognized and reported, as seen with the Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic where large proportions of infection were asymptomatic. However, multiple imperfect indicators of infection pr

Externí odkaz: https://doaj.org/article/c1e910e7ea30428e99fc1fb38e9e3912

Evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub for informing pandemic response under uncertainty

Autor: Emily Howerton, Lucie Contamin, Luke C. Mullany, Michelle Qin, Nicholas G. Reich, Samantha Bents, Rebecca K. Borchering, Sung-mok Jung, Sara L. Loo, Claire P. Smith, John Levander, Jessica Kerr, J. Espino, Willem G. van Panhuis, Harry Hochheiser, Marta Galanti, Teresa Yamana, Sen Pei, Jeffrey Shaman, Kaitlin Rainwater-Lovett, Matt Kinsey, Kate Tallaksen, Shelby Wilson, Lauren Shin, Joseph C. Lemaitre, Joshua Kaminsky, Juan Dent Hulse, Elizabeth C. Lee, Clifton D. McKee, Alison Hill, Dean Karlen, Matteo Chinazzi, Jessica T. Davis, Kunpeng Mu, Xinyue Xiong, Ana Pastore y Piontti, Alessandro Vespignani, Erik T. Rosenstrom, Julie S. Ivy, Maria E. Mayorga, Julie L. Swann, Guido España, Sean Cavany, Sean Moore, Alex Perkins, Thomas Hladish, Alexander Pillai, Kok Ben Toh, Ira Longini, Shi Chen, Rajib Paul, Daniel Janies, Jean-Claude Thill, Anass Bouchnita, Kaiming Bi, Michael Lachmann, Spencer J. Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers, Ajitesh Srivastava, Przemyslaw Porebski, Srini Venkatramanan, Aniruddha Adiga, Bryan Lewis, Brian Klahn, Joseph Outten, Benjamin Hurt, Jiangzhuo Chen, Henning Mortveit, Amanda Wilson, Madhav Marathe, Stefan Hoops, Parantapa Bhattacharya, Dustin Machi, Betsy L. Cadwell, Jessica M. Healy, Rachel B. Slayton, Michael A. Johansson, Matthew Biggerstaff, Shaun Truelove, Michael C. Runge, Katriona Shea, Cécile Viboud, Justin Lessler

Publikováno v: Nature Communications, Vol 14, Iss 1, Pp 1-15 (2023)

Abstract Our ability to forecast epidemics far into the future is constrained by the many complexities of disease systems. Realistic longer-term projections may, however, be possible under well-defined scenarios that specify the future state of criti

Externí odkaz: https://doaj.org/article/5d876a0b4405426fa09f24425e85da39

Public health impact of the U.S. Scenario Modeling Hub

Autor: Rebecca K. Borchering, Jessica M. Healy, Betsy L. Cadwell, Michael A. Johansson, Rachel B. Slayton, Megan Wallace, Matthew Biggerstaff

Publikováno v: Epidemics, Vol 44, Iss , Pp 100705- (2023)

Beginning in December 2020, the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub has provided quantitative scenario-based projections for cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, aggregated across up to nine modeling groups. Projections spanned multiple months into the fu

Externí odkaz: https://doaj.org/article/cde83fb40fb14089b24f91d1d47d3d15

Modeling of Future COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths, by Vaccination Rates and Nonpharmaceutical Intervention Scenarios — United States, April–September 2021

Autor: Cash Costello, Katriona Shea, Molly E. Gallagher, Xinyue Xiong, Michael A. Johansson, Matt Kinsey, D. Karlen, Przemyslaw J. Porebski, Lindsay T Keegan, Jessica Salerno, Shelby Wilson, Shaun A. Truelove, Alessandro Vespignani, Kunpeng Mu, Ajitesh Srivastava, Hannah R. Meredith, Pyrros A Telionis, Juan Dent, Emily Howerton, Ana Pastore y Piontti, Benjamin Hurt, Akhil Sai Peddireddy, Joseph Outten, Jiangzhuo Chen, Rachel B. Slayton, Lijing Wang, R. Freddy Obrecht, Madhav V. Marathe, Bryan Lewis, Claire P. Smith, Stephen A. Lauer, Luke C. Mullany, Matteo Chinazzi, Brian D. Klahn, Joshua Kaminsky, Kyra H. Grantz, James Schlitt, Kate Tallaksen, Michael C. Runge, Michael Kelbaugh, Javier Perez-Saez, Lauren Shin, Patrick Corbett, Justin Lessler, Nicholas G. Reich, Joseph C. Lemaitre, Matthew Biggerstaff, Willem G. van Panhuis, Anil Vullikanti, Lucie Contamin, John Levander, Kaitlin Rainwater-Lovett, Jessica M. Healy, Elizabeth C. Lee, Aniruddha Adiga, Cécile Viboud, Rebecca K. Borchering, Laura Asher, Jessica T. Davis, Srinivasan Venkatramanan

Publikováno v: Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report

After a period of rapidly declining U.S. COVID-19 incidence during January-March 2021, increases occurred in several jurisdictions (1,2) despite the rapid rollout of a large-scale vaccination program. This increase coincided with the spread of more t

Externí odkaz: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::2ad455d4e10ba6874e6eb979c23c1512
https://doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm7019e3