Importance of patient bed pathways and length of stay differences in predicting COVID-19 hospital bed occupancy in England

Autor: Leclerc, QJ, Fuller, NM, Keogh, RH, Diaz-Ordaz, K, Sekula, R, Semple, MG, Baillie, JK, Openshaw, PJM, Carson, G, Alex, B, Bach, B, Barclay, WS, Bogaert, D, Chand, M, Cooke, GS, Docherty, AB, Dunning, J, da Silva Filipe, A, Fletcher, T, Green, CA, Harrison, EM, Hiscox, JA, Ho, AYW, Horby, PW, Ijaz, S, Khoo, S, Klenerman, P, Law, A, Lim, WS, Mentzer, AJ, Merson, L, Meynert, AM, Noursadeghi, M, Moore, SC, Palmarini, M, Paxton, WA, Pollakis, G, Price, N, Rambaut, A, Robertson, DL, Russell, CD, Sancho-Shimizu, V, Scott, JT, de Silva, T, Sigfrid, L, Solomon, T, Sriskandan, S, Stuart, D, Summers, C, Tedder, RS, Thomson, EC, Thompson, AAR, Thwaites, RS, Turtle, LCW, Zambon, M, Hardwick, H, Donohue, C, Lyons, R, Griffiths, F, Oosthuyzen, W, Norman, L, Pius, R, Drake, TM, Fairfield, CJ, Knight, S, Mclean, KA, Murphy, D, Shaw, CA, Dalton, J, Lee, J, Plotkin, D, Girvan, M, Saviciute, E, Roberts, S, Harrison, J, Marsh, L, Connor, M, Halpin, S, Jackson, C, Gamble, C, Petersen, C, Mullaney, S, Leeming, G, Wham, M, Clohisey, S, Hendry, R, Scott-Brown, J, Greenhalf, W, Shaw, V, McDonald, S, Keating, S, Ahmed, KA, Armstrong, JA, Ashworth, M, Asiimwe, IG, Bakshi, S, Barlow, SL, Booth, L, Brennan, B, Bullock, K, Catterall, BWA, Clark, JJ, Clarke, EA, Cole, S, Cooper, L, Cox, H, Davis, C, Dincarslan, O, Dunn, C, Dyer, P, Elliott, A, Evans, A, Finch, L, Fisher, LWS, Foster, T, Garcia-Dorival, I, Gunning, P, Hartley, C, Ho, A, Jensen, RL, Jones, CB, Jones, TR, Khandaker, S, King, K, Kiy, RT, Koukorava, C, Lake, A, Lant, S, Latawiec, D, Lavelle-Langham, L, Lefteri, D, Lett, L, Livoti, LA, Mancini, M, McEvoy, L, McLauchlan, J, Metelmann, S, Miah, NS, Middleton, J, Mitchell, J, Murphy, EG, Penrice-Randal, R, Pilgrim, J, Prince, T, Reynolds, W, Ridley, PM, Sales, D, Shaw, VE, Shears, RK, Small, B, Subramaniam, KS, Szemiel, A, Taggart, A, Tanianis-Hughes, J, Thomas, J, Trochu, E, van Tonder, L, Wilcock, E, Zhang, JE, Adeniji, K, Agranoff, D, Agwuh, K, Ail, D, Alegria, A, Angus, B, Ashish, A, Atkinson, D, Bari, S, Barlow, G, Barnass, S, Barrett, N, Bassford, C, Baxter, D, Beadsworth, M, Bernatoniene, J, Berridge, J, Best, N, Bothma, P, Brealey, D, Brittain-Long, R, Bulteel, N, Burden, T, Burtenshaw, A, Caruth, V, Chadwick, D, Chambler, D, Chee, N, Child, J, Chukkambotla, S, Clark, T, Collini, P, Cosgrove, C, Cupitt, J, Cutino-Moguel, M-T, Dark, P, Dawson, C, Dervisevic, S, Donnison, P, Douthwaite, S, DuRand, I, Dushianthan, A, Dyer, T, Evans, C, Eziefula, C, Fegan, C, Finn, A, Fullerton, D, Garg, S, Garg, A, Gkrania-Klotsas, E, Godden, J, Goldsmith, A, Graham, C, Hardy, E, Hartshorn, S, Harvey, D, Havalda, P, Hawcutt, DB, Hobrok, M, Hodgson, L, Hormis, A, Jacobs, M, Jain, S, Jennings, P, Kaliappan, A, Kasipandian, V, Kegg, S, Kelsey, M, Kendall, J, Kerrison, C, Kerslake, I, Koch, O, Koduri, G, Koshy, G, Laha, S, Laird, S, Larkin, S, Leiner, T, Lillie, P, Limb, J, Linnett, V, Little, J, MacMahon, M, MacNaughton, E, Mankregod, R, Masson, H, Matovu, E, McCullough, K, McEwen, R, Meda, M, Mills, G, Minton, J, Mirfenderesky, M, Mohandas, K, Mok, Q, Moon, J, Moore, E, Morgan, P, Morris, C, Mortimore, K, Moses, S, Mpenge, M, Mulla, R, Murphy, M, Nagel, M, Nagarajan, T, Nelson, M, Otahal, I, Pais, M, Panchatsharam, S, Paraiso, H, Patel, B, Pattison, N, Pepperell, J, Peters, M, Phull, M, Pintus, S, Pooni, JS, Post, F, Price, D, Prout, R, Rae, N, Reschreiter, H, Reynolds, T, Richardson, N, Roberts, M, Roberts, D, Rose, A, Rousseau, G, Ryan, B, Saluja, T, Shah, A, Shanmuga, P, Sharma, A, Shawcross, A, Sizer, J, Shankar-Hari, M, Smith, R, Snelson, C, Spittle, N, Staines, N, Stambach, T, Stewart, R, Subudhi, P, Szakmany, T, Tatham, K, Thompson, C, Thompson, R, Tridente, A, Tupper-Carey, D, Twagira, M, Ustianowski, A, Vallotton, N, Vincent-Smith, L, Visuvanathan, S, Vuylsteke, A, Waddy, S, Wake, R, Walden, A, Welters, I, Whitehouse, T, Whittaker, P, Whittington, A, Wijesinghe, M, Williams, M, Wilson, L, Wilson, S, Winchester, S, Wiselka, M, Wolverson, A, Wooton, DG, Workman, A, Yates, B, Young, P, Quaife, M, Jarvis, CI, Meakin, SR, Quilty, BJ, Prem, K, Villabona-Arenas, CJ, Sun, FY, Abbas, K, Auzenbergs, M, Gimma, A, Tully, DC, Sherratt, K, Rosello, A, Davies, NG, Liu, Y, Lowe, R, Gibbs, HP, Waterlow, NR, Edmunds, WJ, Simons, D, Medley, G, Munday, JD, Flasche, S, Sandmann, FG, Showering, A, Eggo, RM, Chan, Y-WD, Pearson, CAB, Kucharski, AJ, Foss, AM, Russell, TW, Bosse, NI, Jit, M, Abbott, S, Williams, J, Endo, A, Clifford, S, Gore-Langton, GR, Klepac, P, Brady, O, Hellewell, J, Funk, S, van Zandvoort, K, Barnard, RC, Nightingale, ES, Jombart, T, Atkins, KE, Procter, SR, Knight, GM

Background\ud \ud Predicting bed occupancy for hospitalised patients with COVID-19 requires understanding of length of stay (LoS) in particular bed types. LoS can vary depending on the patient’s “bed pathway” - the sequence of transfers of indi

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