Zobrazeno 1 - 10
of 64
pro vyhledávání: '"Jan-Christoph Rülke"'
Publikováno v:
Economies, Vol 1, Iss 1, Pp 6-13 (2013)
We study whether forecasts of the rate of change of the price of oil are rational. To this end, we consider a model that allows the shape of forecasters’ loss function to be studied. The shape of forecasters’ loss function may be consistent with
Externí odkaz:
https://doaj.org/article/1a08cd70ea1c45a1acb04651aa12de2d
Publikováno v:
Empirical Economics. 62:1037-1078
In this paper, we study the bias in interest rate projections of five central banks, namely the central banks of the Czech Republic, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, and the USA. We examine whether central bank projections are based on an asymmetric loss
Externí odkaz:
https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::106f1d9945bf3d1977858f68ee19fd18
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-021-02046-y
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-021-02046-y
Publikováno v:
Economic Modelling. 84:214-221
This paper uses forecast data from 1995 through 2014 to examine, whether the market consensus of exchange rate forecasts has an effect on the forecasts of individual experts. Such an effect could take the form of herding or anti-herding. We use a ver
Externí odkaz:
https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::42e1d0ab971c1f8531cf613af8759f19
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2019.04.011
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2019.04.011
Publikováno v:
International Journal of Financial Studies, Vol 1, Iss 1, Pp 16-29 (2012)
We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecast
Externí odkaz:
https://doaj.org/article/35190c9fb2a1483b96ace84b770b9772
Publikováno v:
International Economic Journal. 33:383-407
This paper uses the Consensus Economic Forecast poll to investigate how forecasters in the foreign exchange market form expectations and whether the expectation formation process differs between in...
Externí odkaz:
https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::e738273f0f58555efda653f164b4c77b
https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2019.1632915
https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2019.1632915
Publikováno v:
Applied Economics Letters. 26:731-735
This article investigates which type of loss function is consistent with the hypothesis that major exchange rate forecasts, i.e. the euro, the British pound, and the Japanese yen vis-a-vis the US dollar, are rational. We apply a comprehensive data se
Externí odkaz:
https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::29c8ed4fcfda352bfce60be636bd477f
https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2018.1490692
https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2018.1490692
Publikováno v:
Macroeconomic Dynamics. 20:791-818
We revisit the sources of the bias in Federal Reserve forecasts and assess whether a precautionary motive can explain the forecast bias. In contrast to the existing literature, we use forecasts submitted by individual Federal Open Market Committee (F
Externí odkaz:
https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::839836c20671d47624baa53ad16dfb53
https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100514000625
https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100514000625
Publikováno v:
International Journal of Forecasting. 32:23-33
Using a large international data set, we analyze whether business cycle forecasters herd or anti-herd. In general, we find evidence for anti-herding, i.e. forecasters appear to scatter their forecasts deliberately away from the forecasts of others. A
Externí odkaz:
https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::898118e782300eb4d5b2a4a8cc1fe56c
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.02.004
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.02.004
Publikováno v:
International Review of Economics & Finance. 38:369-376
We use survey data to study whether the exchange-rate forecasts made by professional forecasters are informative with respect to the direction of subsequent changes of (Asian, Eastern European, and South American) emerging market exchange rates. Whil
Externí odkaz:
https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::e44292e1c8e313fc862f1b8ddf86c308
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2015.03.003
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2015.03.003
Publikováno v:
Stadtmann, G, Fritsche, U, Pierdzioch, C & Rülke, J-C 2015, ' Forecasting the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso: Asymmetric loss, forecast rationality, and forecaster herding ', International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 31, no. 1, pp. 130-139 . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.08.010
Using forecasts of the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso, we analyze the shape of the loss function of exchange-rate forecasters and the rationality of their forecasts. We find a substantial degree of cross-sectional heterogeneity with respect to t
Externí odkaz:
https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::0f0f3907aa1015e532abcf6c98086e9e
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.08.010
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.08.010