Short-term forecasts to inform the response to the Covid-19 epidemic in the UK

Autor: Funk, S, Abbott, S, Atkins, BD, Baguelin, M, Baillie, JK, Birrell, P, Blake, J, Bosse, NI, Burton, J, Carruthers, J, Davies, NG, De Angelis, D, Dyson, L, Edmunds, WJ, Eggo, RM, Ferguson, NM, Gaythorpe, K, Gorsich, E, Guyver-Fletcher, G, Hellewell, J, Hill, EM, Holmes, A, House, TA, Jewell, C, Jit, M, Jombart, T, Joshi, I, Keeling, MJ, Kendall, E, Knock, ES, Kucharski, AJ, Lythgoe, KA, Meakin, SR, Munday, JD, Openshaw, PJM, Overton, CE, Pagani, F, Pearson, J, Perez-Guzman, PN, Pellis, L, Scarabel, F, Semple, MG, Sherratt, K, Tang, M, Tildesley, MJ, Van Leeuwen, E, Whittles, LK

BackgroundShort-term forecasts of infectious disease can aid situational awareness and planning for outbreak response. Here, we report on multi-model forecasts of Covid-19 in the UK that were generated at regular intervals starting at the end of Marc

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Fitting to the UK COVID-19 outbreak, short-term forecasts and estimating the reproductive number.

Autor: Keeling MJ; The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology & Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, United Kingdom.; Joint UNIversities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research, https://maths.org/juniper/., Dyson L; The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology & Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, United Kingdom.; Joint UNIversities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research, https://maths.org/juniper/., Guyver-Fletcher G; The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology & Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, United Kingdom.; Midlands Integrative Biosciences Training Partnership, School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, United Kingdom., Holmes A; The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology & Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, United Kingdom.; Mathematics for Real World Systems Centre for Doctoral Training, Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, United Kingdom., Semple MG; NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections, Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom.; Respiratory Medicine, Alder Hey Children's Hospital, Institute in The Park, University of Liverpool, Alder Hey Children's Hospital, Liverpool L12 2AP, United Kingdom., Tildesley MJ; The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology & Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, United Kingdom.; Joint UNIversities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research, https://maths.org/juniper/., Hill EM; The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology & Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, United Kingdom.; Joint UNIversities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research, https://maths.org/juniper/.

Publikováno v: MedRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences [medRxiv] 2021 Jul 27. Date of Electronic Publication: 2021 Jul 27.