Insights into the accuracy of social scientists’ forecasts of societal change

Autor: Grossmann, Igor, Rotella, Amanda, Hutcherson, Cendri A., Sharpinskyi, Konstantyn, Varnum, Michael E. W., Achter, Sebastian, Dhami, Mandeep K., Guo, Xinqi Evie, Kara-Yakoubian, Mane, Mandel, David R., Raes, Louis, Tay, Louis, Vie, Aymeric, Wagner, Lisa, Adamkovic, Matus, Arami, Arash, Arriaga, Patrícia, Bandara, Kasun, Baník, Gabriel, Bartoš, František, Baskin, Ernest, Bergmeir, Christoph, Białek, Michał, Børsting, Caroline K., Browne, Dillon T., Caruso, Eugene M., Chen, Rong, Chie, Bin-Tzong, Chopik, William J., Collins, Robert N., Cong, Chin Wen, Conway, Lucian G., Davis, Matthew, Day, Martin V., Dhaliwal, Nathan A., Durham, Justin D., Dziekan, Martyna, Elbaek, Christian T., Shuman, Eric, Fabrykant, Marharyta, Firat, Mustafa, Fong, Geoffrey T., Frimer, Jeremy A., Gallegos, Jonathan M., Goldberg, Simon B., Gollwitzer, Anton, Goyal, Julia, Graf-Vlachy, Lorenz, Gronlund, Scott D., Hafenbrädl, Sebastian, Hartanto, Andree, Hirshberg, Matthew J., Hornsey, Matthew J., Howe, Piers D. L., Izadi, Anoosha, Jaeger, Bastian, Kačmár, Pavol, Kim, Yeun Joon, Krenzler, Ruslan, Lannin, Daniel G., Lin, Hung-Wen, Lou, Nigel Mantou, Lua, Verity Y. Q., Lukaszewski, Aaron W., Ly, Albert L., Madan, Christopher R., Maier, Maximilian, Majeed, Nadyanna M., March, David S., Marsh, Abigail A., Misiak, Michal, Myrseth, Kristian Ove R., Napan, Jaime M., Nicholas, Jonathan, Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, O, Jiaqing, Otterbring, Tobias, Paruzel-Czachura, Mariola, Pauer, Shiva, Protzko, John, Raffaelli, Quentin, Ropovik, Ivan, Ross, Robert M., Roth, Yefim, Røysamb, Espen, Schnabel, Landon, Schütz, Astrid, Seifert, Matthias, Sevincer, A. T., Sherman, Garrick T., Simonsson, Otto, Sung, Ming-Chien, Tai, Chung-Ching, Talhelm, Thomas, Teachman, Bethany A., Tetlock, Philip E., Thomakos, Dimitrios, Tse, Dwight C. K., Twardus, Oliver J., Tybur, Joshua M., Ungar, Lyle, Vandermeulen, Daan, Vaughan Williams, Leighton, Vosgerichian, Hrag A., Wang, Qi, Wang, Ke, Whiting, Mark E., Wollbrant, Conny E., Yang, Tao, Yogeeswaran, Kumar, Yoon, Sangsuk, Alves, Ventura R., Andrews-Hanna, Jessica R., Bloom, Paul A., Boyles, Anthony, Charis, Loo, Choi, Mingyeong, Darling-Hammond, Sean, Ferguson, Z. E., Kaiser, Cheryl R., Karg, Simon T., Ortega, Alberto López, Mahoney, Lori, Marsh, Melvin S., Martinie, Marcellin F. R. C., Michaels, Eli K., Millroth, Philip, Naqvi, Jeanean B., Ng, Weiting, Rutledge, Robb B., Slattery, Peter, Smiley, Adam H., Strijbis, Oliver, Sznycer, Daniel, Tsukayama, Eli, van Loon, Austin, Voelkel, Jan G., Wienk, Margaux N. A., Wilkening, Tom, Collaborative, The Forecasting

Publikováno v: Nature Human Behaviour, 7(4), 484-501. Springer Nature
Nature Human Behaviour, 7(4), 484-501. Nature Publishing Group
The Forecasting Collaborative 2023, ' Insights into the accuracy of social scientists’ forecasts of societal change ', Nature Human Behaviour, vol. 7, no. 4, pp. 484-501 . https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-022-01517-1
Nature Human Behaviour, 7, 4, pp. 484-501
Nature Human Behaviour, 7, 484-501
Grossmann, I, Rotella, A, Hutcherson, C A, Sharpinskyi, K, Varnum, M E W, Achter, S, Dhami, M K, Guo, X E, Kara-Yakoubian, M, Mandel, D R, Raes, L, Tay, L, Vie, A, Wagner, L, Adamkovic, M, Arami, A, Arriaga, P, Bandara, K, Baník, G, Bartoš, F, Baskin, E, Bergmeir, C, Białek, M, Børsting, C K, Browne, D T, Caruso, E M, Chen, R, Chie, B-T, Chopik, W J, Collins, R N, Cong, C W, Conway, L G, Davis, M, Day, M V, Dhaliwal, N A, Durham, J D, Dziekan, M, Elbaek, C T, Shuman, E, Fabrykant, M, Firat, M, Fong, G T, Frimer, J A, Gallegos, J M, Goldberg, S B, Gollwitzer, A, Goyal, J, Graf-Vlachy, L, Gronlund, S D, Hafenbrädl, S, Hartanto, A, Hirshberg, M J, Hornsey, M J, Howe, P D L, Izadi, A, Jaeger, B, Kačmár, P, Kim, Y J, Krenzler, R, Lannin, D G, Lin, H-W, Lou, N M, Lua, V Y Q, Lukaszewski, A W, Ly, A L, Madan, C R, Maier, M, Majeed, N M, March, D S, Marsh, A A, Misiak, M, Myrseth, K O R, Napan, J M, Nicholas, J, Nikolopoulos, K, O, J, Otterbring, T, Paruzel-Czachura, M, Pauer, S, Protzko, J, Raffaelli, Q, Ropovik, I, Ross, R M, Roth, Y, Røysamb, E, Schnabel, L, Schütz, A, Seifert, M, Sevincer, A T, Sherman, G T, Simonsson, O, Sung, M-C, Tai, C-C, Talhelm, T, Teachman, B A, Tetlock, P E, Thomakos, D, Tse, D C K, Twardus, O J, Tybur, J M, Ungar, L, Vandermeulen, D, Vaughan Williams, L, Vosgerichian, H A, Wang, Q, Wang, K, Whiting, M E, Wollbrant, C E, Yang, T, Yogeeswaran, K, Yoon, S, Alves, V R, Andrews-Hanna, J R, Bloom, P A, Boyles, A, Charis, L, Choi, M, Darling-Hammond, S, Ferguson, Z E, Kaiser, C R, Karg, S T, Ortega, A L, Mahoney, L, Marsh, M S, Martinie, M F R C, Michaels, E K, Millroth, P, Naqvi, J B, Ng, W, Rutledge, R B, Slattery, P, Smiley, A H, Strijbis, O, Sznycer, D, Tsukayama, E, van Loon, A, Voelkel, J G, Wienk, M N A, Wilkening, T & Collaborative, T F 2023, ' Insights into the accuracy of social scientists’ forecasts of societal change ', Nature Human Behaviour . https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-022-01517-1
Nature Human Behaviour

Item does not contain fulltext How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change

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https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/be5bcded-aad7-48ff-9bd5-6c4ccbd77202