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Testable implications of economic revolutions: An application to historic data on European wages

Autor: Fry, J. M., Masood, Omar

Motivated by an on-going debate in economic history we develop a simple method to quantify the impact of economic revolutions upon a novel historical data set listing the wages of building craftsmen and labourers in Southeast Europe. Structural break

Externí odkaz: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=od_______645::631ff14aa0a55dc5434f388174092bb6
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/32812/1/MPRA_paper_32812.pdf

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Evolution or revolution? a study of price and wage volatility in England, 1200-1900

Autor: Casson, Catherine, Fry, J. M., Casson, Mark

Using annual data 1209-1914, this paper examines whether there are structural breaks in the movements of prices and wages that correspond to the major ‘revolutions’ identified in historical narratives. Econometric modelling of trend and volatilit

Externí odkaz: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=od_______645::2eb04d9c6c7335b52927fb14d82c1bc1
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/31518/1/MPRA_paper_31518.pdf

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Revolutionary change and structural breaks: A time series analysis of wages and commodity prices in Britain 1264-1913

Autor: Casson, Catherine, Fry, J. M.

In this paper we empirically test the hypothesis that economic revolutions are associated with structural breaks in historical economic data. A simple test for structural breaks in economic time series is applied to British wage and price data from t

Externí odkaz: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=od_______645::2f0d3b959230db7b741a9518f15cce2e
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/27866/1/MPRA_paper_27866.pdf

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Gaussian and non-Gaussian models for financial bubbles via econophysics

Autor: Fry, J. M.

We develop a rational expectations model of financial bubbles and study how the risk-return interplay is incorporated into prices. We retain the interpretation of the leading Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette model: namely, that the price must rise prior to a

Externí odkaz: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=od_______645::b300cbb884fa35d279fabdce79ac48a4
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/27307/1/MPRA_paper_27307.pdf

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Bubbles and crashes in finance: A phase transition from random to deterministic behaviour in prices

Autor: Fry, J. M.

We develop a rational expectations model of financial bubbles and study ways in which a generic risk-return interplay is incorporated into prices. We retain the interpretation of the leading Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette model, namely, that the price must

Externí odkaz: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=od_______645::fd57f5cfbe6c1381625d62cfa5245e68
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/24778/1/MPRA_paper_24778.pdf

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Bubbles and contagion in English house prices

Autor: Fry, J. M.

Using methods originating from statistical physics we model bubbles in English house prices. It is found that there was a nationwide housing bubble 2002-2007. Typically prices were 30-40% over-valued and fell around 20%. London is atypical in that th

Externí odkaz: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=od_______645::1bae9f22231193015d28558bf59d8814
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/17687/1/MPRA_paper_17687.pdf

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