Aggregation of experts' opinions and conditional consensus opinion by the Steiner point

Autor: Alain Chateauneuf, Marcello Basili

Publikováno v: International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, Elsevier, 2020, 123, pp.17-25. ⟨10.1016/j.ijar.2020.04.005⟩

International audience; This paper considers the issue of aggregation of experts' opinions expressed through not necessarily independent and even conflicting probability distributions or multiple priors. The paper addresses the elicitation of the con

Externí odkaz: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::90d23c7979d86d7bf16af0ec4e450c3d
https://hal-paris1.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03260206

Ellsberg Rules and Keynes’s State of Long-Term Expectation: More Than an Accordance

Autor: Marcello Basili

This paper advances an intuitive way to represent Keynes’s notion of long-term expectation. The epsilon-contamination approach is introduced and a rational and coherent decision rule is derived. The result is evidence that Ellsberg and Keynes share

Externí odkaz: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=od_______645::c04acf5abf459ab33922d7774cbab95c
http://repec.deps.unisi.it/quaderni/685.pdf

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