Epidemiological modeling of SARS-CoV-2 in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) reveals conditions for introduction and widespread transmission.

Autor: Elias Rosenblatt, Jonathan D Cook, Graziella V DiRenzo, Evan H Campbell Grant, Fernando Arce, Kim M Pepin, F Javiera Rudolph, Michael C Runge, Susan Shriner, Daniel P Walsh, Brittany A Mosher

Publikováno v: PLoS Computational Biology, Vol 20, Iss 7, p e1012263 (2024)

Emerging infectious diseases with zoonotic potential often have complex socioecological dynamics and limited ecological data, requiring integration of epidemiological modeling with surveillance. Although our understanding of SARS-CoV-2 has advanced c

Externí odkaz: https://doaj.org/article/96bbd26b83764a01993d41e22f9c5bb5

Scenario design for infectious disease projections: Integrating concepts from decision analysis and experimental design

Autor: Michael C. Runge, Katriona Shea, Emily Howerton, Katie Yan, Harry Hochheiser, Erik Rosenstrom, William J.M. Probert, Rebecca Borchering, Madhav V. Marathe, Bryan Lewis, Srinivasan Venkatramanan, Shaun Truelove, Justin Lessler, Cécile Viboud

Publikováno v: Epidemics, Vol 47, Iss , Pp 100775- (2024)

Across many fields, scenario modeling has become an important tool for exploring long-term projections and how they might depend on potential interventions and critical uncertainties, with relevance to both decision makers and scientists. In the past

Externí odkaz: https://doaj.org/article/e12a39fc36ee4cbea29cc1d76b02de29

The US COVID-19 and Influenza Scenario Modeling Hubs: Delivering long-term projections to guide policy

Autor: Sara L. Loo, Emily Howerton, Lucie Contamin, Claire P. Smith, Rebecca K. Borchering, Luke C. Mullany, Samantha Bents, Erica Carcelen, Sung-mok Jung, Tiffany Bogich, Willem G. van Panhuis, Jessica Kerr, Jessi Espino, Katie Yan, Harry Hochheiser, Michael C. Runge, Katriona Shea, Justin Lessler, Cécile Viboud, Shaun Truelove

Publikováno v: Epidemics, Vol 46, Iss , Pp 100738- (2024)

Between December 2020 and April 2023, the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) generated operational multi-month projections of COVID-19 burden in the US to guide pandemic planning and decision-making in the context of high uncertainty. This effort w

Externí odkaz: https://doaj.org/article/e0a2d84e926b48b28b335be3fb34f117

Evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub for informing pandemic response under uncertainty

Autor: Emily Howerton, Lucie Contamin, Luke C. Mullany, Michelle Qin, Nicholas G. Reich, Samantha Bents, Rebecca K. Borchering, Sung-mok Jung, Sara L. Loo, Claire P. Smith, John Levander, Jessica Kerr, J. Espino, Willem G. van Panhuis, Harry Hochheiser, Marta Galanti, Teresa Yamana, Sen Pei, Jeffrey Shaman, Kaitlin Rainwater-Lovett, Matt Kinsey, Kate Tallaksen, Shelby Wilson, Lauren Shin, Joseph C. Lemaitre, Joshua Kaminsky, Juan Dent Hulse, Elizabeth C. Lee, Clifton D. McKee, Alison Hill, Dean Karlen, Matteo Chinazzi, Jessica T. Davis, Kunpeng Mu, Xinyue Xiong, Ana Pastore y Piontti, Alessandro Vespignani, Erik T. Rosenstrom, Julie S. Ivy, Maria E. Mayorga, Julie L. Swann, Guido España, Sean Cavany, Sean Moore, Alex Perkins, Thomas Hladish, Alexander Pillai, Kok Ben Toh, Ira Longini, Shi Chen, Rajib Paul, Daniel Janies, Jean-Claude Thill, Anass Bouchnita, Kaiming Bi, Michael Lachmann, Spencer J. Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers, Ajitesh Srivastava, Przemyslaw Porebski, Srini Venkatramanan, Aniruddha Adiga, Bryan Lewis, Brian Klahn, Joseph Outten, Benjamin Hurt, Jiangzhuo Chen, Henning Mortveit, Amanda Wilson, Madhav Marathe, Stefan Hoops, Parantapa Bhattacharya, Dustin Machi, Betsy L. Cadwell, Jessica M. Healy, Rachel B. Slayton, Michael A. Johansson, Matthew Biggerstaff, Shaun Truelove, Michael C. Runge, Katriona Shea, Cécile Viboud, Justin Lessler

Publikováno v: Nature Communications, Vol 14, Iss 1, Pp 1-15 (2023)

Abstract Our ability to forecast epidemics far into the future is constrained by the many complexities of disease systems. Realistic longer-term projections may, however, be possible under well-defined scenarios that specify the future state of criti

Externí odkaz: https://doaj.org/article/5d876a0b4405426fa09f24425e85da39

Unstructured-grid approach to develop high-fidelity groundwater model to understand groundwater flow and storage responses to excessive groundwater withdrawals in the Southern Hills aquifer system in southeastern Louisiana (USA)

Autor: Ye-Hong Chen, Hamid Vahdat-Aboueshagh, Frank T.-C. Tsai, Alyssa Dausman, Michael C. Runge

Publikováno v: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Vol 46, Iss , Pp 101342- (2023)

Study region: The Southern Hills aquifer system (SHAS) in the Louisiana Capital Area Groundwater Conservation District (CAGCD), USA. Study focus: The SHAS provides abundant groundwater for public and industrial supplies in the CAGCD. Groundwater depl

Externí odkaz: https://doaj.org/article/a38fb20b3dce4f7d87b638bfc25e4007