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pro vyhledávání: '"Brill, Ryan S."'
Autor:
Brill, Ryan S., Wyner, Abraham J.
Football analysts traditionally determine the relative value of draft picks by average future player value at each draft position. One implication is the loser's curse: top draft picks belonging to last year's worst teams produce less surplus value o
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/2411.10400
Expected points is a value function fundamental to player evaluation and strategic in-game decision-making across sports analytics, particularly in American football. To estimate expected points, football analysts use machine learning tools, which ar
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/2409.04889
Estimating win probability is one of the classic modeling tasks of sports analytics. Many widely used win probability estimators use machine learning to fit the relationship between a binary win/loss outcome variable and certain game-state variables.
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/2406.16171
The standard mathematical approach to fourth-down decision making in American football is to make the decision that maximizes estimated win probability. Win probability estimates arise from machine learning models fit from historical data. These mode
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/2311.03490
Much work in the parimutuel betting literature has discussed estimating event outcome probabilities or developing optimal wagering strategies, particularly for horse race betting. Some betting pools, however, involve betting not just on a single even
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/2308.14339
As a baseball game progresses, batters appear to perform better the more times they face a particular pitcher. The apparent drop-off in pitcher performance from one time through the order to the next, known as the Time Through the Order Penalty (TTOP
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/2210.06724
Autor:
Brill, Ryan S., Wyner, Abraham J.
The baseball statistic "Wins Above Replacement" (WAR) has emerged as one of the most popular evaluation metrics. But it is not readily observed and tabulated; WAR is an estimate of a parameter in a vaguely defined model with all its attendant assumpt
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/2209.07274
Autor:
Brill, Ryan S.1 (AUTHOR) ryguy123@sas.upenn.edu, Wyner, Abraham J.2 (AUTHOR), Barnett, Ian J.3 (AUTHOR)
Publikováno v:
Entropy. Aug2024, Vol. 26 Issue 8, p615. 28p.
Autor:
Brill, Ryan S., Wyner, Abraham J.
Publikováno v:
Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports; Dec2024, Vol. 20 Issue 4, p293-329, 37p
Publikováno v:
Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports; Dec2023, Vol. 19 Issue 4, p245-262, 18p