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Shadowing trajectories are model trajectories consistent with a sequence of observations of a system, given a distribution of observational noise. The existence of such trajectories is a desirable property of any forecast model. Gradient descent of i
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/1909.05906
An intuitively necessary requirement of models used to provide forecasts of a system's future is the existence of shadowing trajectories that are consistent with past observations of the system: given a system-model pair, do model trajectories exist
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/1909.04488
We are building a hurricane number prediction scheme that relies, in part, on statistical modelling of the empirical relationship between Atlantic sea surface temperatures and landfalling hurricane numbers. We test out a number of simple statistical
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0701173
We are building a hurricane number prediction scheme based on first predicting main development region sea surface temperature (SST), then predicting the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin given the SST prediction, and finally predicting the
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0701170
In earlier work we considered methods for predicting future levels of hurricane activity based on the assumption that historical mean activity was at one constant level from 1900 to 1994, and has been at another constant level since then. We now make
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0611070
Autor:
Binter, Roman
Publikováno v:
IndraStra Global.
In any actual forecast, the future evolution of the system is uncertain and the forecasting model is mathematically imperfect. Both, ontic uncertainties in the future (due to true stochasticity) and epistemic uncertainty of the model (reflecting str
Externí odkaz:
https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=issn23813652::e737592b4540e05981e6ded599ab3470
http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/559/1/Binter_Applied_Probabilistic_Forecasting.pdf
http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/559/1/Binter_Applied_Probabilistic_Forecasting.pdf
Autor:
Binter, Roman
Hypotéza očekávání (HO) termínové struktury úrokových sazeb je jednou z nejdéle používaných ekonomických teorií. Ji? od svého vzniku byla předmětem výzkumu mnoha ekonomických a ekonometrických studií. I p°es intenzivní výzkum
Externí odkaz:
http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-2357