Zobrazeno 1 - 10
of 86
pro vyhledávání: '"Andreas Murr"'
Autor:
Andreas Murr, Michael S. Lewis-Beck
Publikováno v:
PS: Political Science & Politics. 54:91-95
The leading approaches to scientific election forecasting in the United States consist of structural models, prediction markets and opinion polling. With respect to the last, by far the dominant mode relies on vote intention polling, e.g., “If the
Externí odkaz:
https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::4294725ba59877ab256ce371c654f9e1
https://doi.org/10.1017/s1049096520001456
https://doi.org/10.1017/s1049096520001456
When analyzing data, researchers are often less interested in the parameters of statistical models than in functions of these parameters such as predicted values. Here we show that Bayesian simulation with Markov-Chain Monte Carlo tools makes it easy
Externí odkaz:
https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::961b740e1421cec883a4ee625420d043
http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/163361/7/WRAP-computing-quantities-of-interest-and-their-uncertainty-using-bayesian-simulation-2022.pdf
http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/163361/7/WRAP-computing-quantities-of-interest-and-their-uncertainty-using-bayesian-simulation-2022.pdf
Autor:
Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Andreas Murr
There are various scientific approaches to election forecasting: poll aggregation, structural models, electronic markets, and citizen forecasting. With respect to the German case, the first two approaches—polls and models—perhaps have been the mo
Externí odkaz:
https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::d334ea2941e8b4f85b81cdde8c3b8cee
http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/154353/1/WRAP-Citizen-forecasts-2021-German-election-2021.pdf
http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/154353/1/WRAP-Citizen-forecasts-2021-German-election-2021.pdf
Autor:
Andreas Murr
When assessing election forecasts, two important criteria emerge: their accuracy (precision) and lead time (distance to event). Curiously, in both 2010 and 2015 the most accurate forecasts came from models having the longest lead time—albeit at mos
Externí odkaz:
https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::5f8049f96c39761a43d4824e1cfdbdc1
http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/152051/1/WRAP-Do-party-leadership-contests-forecast-British-gneral-elections-2021.pdf
http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/152051/1/WRAP-Do-party-leadership-contests-forecast-British-gneral-elections-2021.pdf
Publikováno v:
British Journal of Political Science. 51:60-67
Are ordinary citizens better at predicting election results than conventional voter intention polls? We address this question by comparing eight forecasting models for British general elections: one based on voters’ expectations of who will win and
Externí odkaz:
https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::bf3e5353b1c776506dde23b17a6e99d8
https://doi.org/10.1017/s0007123419000061
https://doi.org/10.1017/s0007123419000061
Most citizens correctly forecast which party will win a given election, and such forecasts usually have a higher level of accuracy than voter intention polls. How do citizens do it? We argue that social networks are a big part of the answer: much of
Externí odkaz:
https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::2d621137ef7e1745f58a11383ff107a2
http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/95184/7/WRAP-social-networks-citizen-election-forecasting-Murr-2017.pdf
http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/95184/7/WRAP-social-networks-citizen-election-forecasting-Murr-2017.pdf
Autor:
Andreas Murr
Publikováno v:
The SAGE Handbook of Electoral Behaviour: Volume 2
Externí odkaz:
https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::cd89a7a89e123d61097bf18a519fbd23
https://doi.org/10.4135/9781473957978.n36
https://doi.org/10.4135/9781473957978.n36
We apply a specialized Bayesian method that helps us deal with the methodological challenge of unobserved heterogeneity among immigrant voters. Our approach is based ongeneralized linear mixed Dirichlet models(GLMDMs) where random effects are specifi
Externí odkaz:
https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::235dd42ca0f6ab70f9a9263821a1ef19
https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:b3f78309-0f2d-4a84-be90-161b870ce51e
https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:b3f78309-0f2d-4a84-be90-161b870ce51e
Autor:
Andreas Murr
Publikováno v:
Electoral Studies. 30:771-783
Many studies report the “wonders of aggregation” and that groups (often) yield better decisions than individuals. Can this “wisdom of crowds”-effect be used to forecast elections? Forecasting models in first-past-the-post systems need to tran
Externí odkaz:
https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::cbfba980dced98122d09e3660391b00f
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2011.07.005
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2011.07.005